Lines · 2026 · Week 10 · read Fri 7:24 PM ET

299 lines posted.
The model leans on 156.

Every posted line this week, the market's price, the Second Opinion beside it, and what leans that size have done before. Nothing leaves the board when it misses.

Leans published, week 10

156

27 graded · 129 open · 0 void

Leans cleared, this read

44%

12 of 27 · 95% 28%–63%

Break-even at −110

52.4%

what a lean at that price needs

Week 9, settled

Week 10's market is not broad yet, so this page leads with week 9, as the landing does. What the board said before the games, and what happened. Nothing is removed when it missed.

Leans published, week 9

153 cleared · 108 missed

58.6% of 261 graded cleared, 95% 53%–64%. That interval sits wholly over break-even at −110, 52.4%. 10 leans were void and stay on the ledger. Every lean, graded, on Receipts.

Streaks into week 9

50 carried · 49 broke

101 lines went into week 9 on a streak one of the four rules fired on. 50.5% of the 99 graded carried it, 95% 41%–60%. 2 void. Who carried and who broke.

What a lean is

A gap of 4 points or more between the model and the market.

First opinionThe market’s price

Second OpinionThe model’s

It is published so it can be graded, not because disagreeing has paid. Every lean stays on the record, cleared or missed.

From the board index · board/nfl/2026/wk10/index.json

Player props

257 of 299 lines shown; 156 carry a lean, at a gap of 4 points or more. Each row sets the market’s chance of the over beside the Second Opinion’s.

Lean

All Leans No lean

Market

All Rec yds Rec Rush att

Hide settled

Game and order

124 of the 299 lines are receiving yards, where the model gives no price this week: those rows show the market alone. Every row is complete as shown; nothing on this board is still loading.

Rows 1–40 of 257 · page 1 of 7

Sun, Nov 15 · 9:30 AM ET1 game · 15 lines

WRAmon-Ra St. Brown Rec yds 77.5 · NE @ DET · DET

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

4 of 10 over

upcoming

WRAmon-Ra St. Brown Rec 7.5 · NE @ DET · DET

Market 44.3%Second Opinion 35.9%

under−8.4Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862

7 of 10 over

upcoming

RBCorey Kiner Rush att 13.5 · NE @ DET · NE

Market 47.8%Second Opinion 5.5%

under−42.3Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602

0 of 10 over

upcoming

QBDrake Maye Rush att 4.5 · NE @ DET · NE

Market 48.2%Second Opinion 52.6%

over+4.3Leans this size 47% [41%–52%] · n 315

5 of 10 over

upcoming

TEHunter Henry Rec yds 35.5 · NE @ DET · NE

Market 49.9%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

6 of 10 over

upcoming

TEHunter Henry Rec 3.5 · NE @ DET · NE

Market 43.4%Second Opinion 46.5%

no lean+3.1no lean history

4 of 10 over

upcoming

WRIsaac TeSlaa Rec yds 17.5 · NE @ DET · DET

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

6 of 10 over

upcoming

WRIsaac TeSlaa Rec 1.5 · NE @ DET · DET

Market 47.6%Second Opinion 41.0%

under−6.7Leans this size 48% [45%–51%] · n 1,059

5 of 10 over

upcoming

RBJahmyr Gibbs Rec yds 30.5 · NE @ DET · DET

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

5 of 10 over

upcoming

RBJahmyr Gibbs Rec 4.5 · NE @ DET · DET

Market 45.8%Second Opinion 38.2%

under−7.6Leans this size 48% [45%–51%] · n 1,059

5 of 10 over

upcoming

RBJahmyr Gibbs Rush att 20.5 · NE @ DET · DET

Market 48.4%Second Opinion 23.4%

under−25.1Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602

4 of 10 over

upcoming

WRJameson Williams Rec yds 55.5 · NE @ DET · DET

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

4 of 10 over

upcoming

WRJameson Williams Rec 3.5 · NE @ DET · DET

Market 54.2%Second Opinion 47.4%

under−6.8Leans this size 48% [45%–51%] · n 1,059

6 of 10 over

upcoming

TESam LaPorta Rec yds 44.5 · NE @ DET · DET

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

6 of 10 over

upcoming

TESam LaPorta Rec 4.5 · NE @ DET · DET

Market 43.3%Second Opinion 41.7%

no lean−1.6no lean history

6 of 10 over

upcoming

Sun, Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET7 games · 145 lines · 25 of them on this page

WRAdonai Mitchell Rec yds 36.5 · BUF @ NYJ · NYJ

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

5 of 10 over

upcoming

WRAdonai Mitchell Rec 2.5 · BUF @ NYJ · NYJ

Market 56.7%Second Opinion 41.3%

under−15.4Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862

6 of 10 over

upcoming

RBBreece Hall Rec yds 16.5 · BUF @ NYJ · NYJ

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

5 of 10 over

upcoming

RBBreece Hall Rec 2.5 · BUF @ NYJ · NYJ

Market 49.1%Second Opinion 43.4%

under−5.7Leans this size 50% [47%–53%] · n 1,084

4 of 10 over

upcoming

RBBreece Hall Rush att 13.5 · BUF @ NYJ · NYJ

Market 48.4%Second Opinion 59.4%

over+10.9Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602

8 of 10 over

upcoming

TEDalton Kincaid Rec yds 41.5 · BUF @ NYJ · BUF

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

4 of 10 over

upcoming

TEDalton Kincaid Rec 3.5 · BUF @ NYJ · BUF

Market 47.2%Second Opinion 44.9%

no lean−2.3no lean history

4 of 10 over

upcoming

TEDawson Knox Rec yds 11.5 · BUF @ NYJ · BUF

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

4 of 10 over

upcoming

TEDawson Knox Rec 1.5 · BUF @ NYJ · BUF

Market 50.9%Second Opinion 53.3%

no lean+2.5no lean history

5 of 10 over

upcoming

Chance to clear each threshold

Last 10 games: the share at or above each threshold. Ten games at most: a small sample, drawn as one.

Market 50.9% Second Opinion 53.3%— last ten

The read prices the main line only.

This line, game by game

Last 10 against today’s 1.5, not the line posted that week · cleared 5 of 10.

Cleared Missed– not recorded

this season 3 of 8 · career 69 of 104 against 1.5 · 18 of 46 against each game's own closing line (2023-2025 sportsbook closes).

What leans this size have done

The gap is inside 4 points, so the model does not lean on this line.

Line since open

Opened at 1.5, unchanged.

One read of this line so far (Thu, Nov 12, 1:00 PM ET, 50.9%): no path yet.

Each book at 1.5, as it last showed it. Market P(over) is the median of the de-vigged prices across 2 books.
Book	Over	Under	P(over)	Hold
draftkings	−122	−105	51.8%	6.2%
fanduel	−114	−114	50.0%	6.5%

BUF @ NYJ · kickoff Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET

WRDJ Moore Rec yds 45.5 · BUF @ NYJ · BUF

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

5 of 10 over

upcoming

WRDJ Moore Rec 3.5 · BUF @ NYJ · BUF

Market 47.4%Second Opinion 33.8%

under−13.6Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862

5 of 10 over

upcoming

WRGarrett Wilson Rec yds 61.5 · BUF @ NYJ · NYJ

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

4 of 10 over

upcoming

WRGarrett Wilson Rec 5.5 · BUF @ NYJ · NYJ

Market 46.2%Second Opinion 40.3%

under−5.9Leans this size 50% [47%–53%] · n 1,084

4 of 10 over

upcoming

RBJames Cook Rec yds 7.5 · BUF @ NYJ · BUF

Market 50.8%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

4 of 10 over

upcoming

RBJames Cook Rec 1.5 · BUF @ NYJ · BUF

Market 44.5%Second Opinion 51.2%

over+6.7Leans this size 48% [45%–51%] · n 1,059

4 of 10 over

upcoming

RBJames Cook Rush att 19.5 · BUF @ NYJ · BUF

Market 51.0%Second Opinion 38.4%

under−12.7Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602

7 of 10 over

upcoming

QBJosh Allen Rush att 6.5 · BUF @ NYJ · BUF

Market 49.9%Second Opinion 44.1%

under−5.8Leans this size 47% [41%–52%] · n 315

6 of 10 over

upcoming

TEKenyon Sadiq Rec yds 21.5 · BUF @ NYJ · NYJ

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

3 of 9 over

upcoming

TEKenyon Sadiq Rec 2.5 · BUF @ NYJ · NYJ

Market 42.9%Second Opinion 28.6%

under−14.3Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862

3 of 9 over

upcoming

WRKeon Coleman Rec yds 28.5 · BUF @ NYJ · BUF

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

5 of 10 over

upcoming

WRKeon Coleman Rec 2.5 · BUF @ NYJ · BUF

Market 43.4%Second Opinion 56.9%

over+13.5Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862

4 of 10 over

upcoming

WRKhalil Shakir Rec yds 42.5 · BUF @ NYJ · BUF

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

5 of 10 over

upcoming

WRKhalil Shakir Rec 3.5 · BUF @ NYJ · BUF

Market 55.3%Second Opinion 60.7%

over+5.4Leans this size 50% [47%–53%] · n 1,084

7 of 10 over

upcoming

TEMason Taylor Rec yds 15.5 · BUF @ NYJ · NYJ

Market 50.2%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

8 of 10 over

upcoming

TEMason Taylor Rec 2.5 · BUF @ NYJ · NYJ

Market 39.5%Second Opinion 60.6%

over+21.1Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862

7 of 10 over

upcoming

156 leans published for week 10: 27 graded, 129 upcoming, 0 live, 0 void. On this read, 12 cleared, 15 missed.

Receipts: every lean the model has published this season, graded, none removed →

Parlay builder: what a book charges for several of these lines on one ticket →

Gap after cost: every priced outcome beside our number, sorted by the difference with the cost taken off →

What each side rested on: for every graded lean, the one input of the model nearest to changing its side →

Between two lines: the chance a count lands between two rungs of an exchange ladder, and what that costs to buy →

How the board is read

Market P(over): median of each benchmark book’s de-vigged price at the main line · Second Opinion: baseline-usage-0.4+03571d4710af

Line: the main line AT THIS READ: the listed threshold whose median de-vigged over probability across DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM is closest to 0.5. is_main is a property of the read, not of the market; it is false only on a row kept for a published lean whose line the main line moved off.
Gap: model minus market, probability points, signed
Lean: over at gap >= +T, under at gap <= -T
Longshot: market P(over) outside [0.15, 0.85]; multiplicative de-vig is biased there - to revisit with Shin or power de-vig once settled data exists
Void: market_pulled | inactive | no_snap - a voided lean stays on the ledger

Threshold log (appended, never edited, so every lean is graded against the threshold it was published under): 4 points from 2026-09-01 (decided 2026-09-24 (audit 5.3, unit a-26) before the first board; effective from season start because no board read predates it).

Last read Fri 7:24 PM ET · week 10Break-even at −110 is 52.4%Nothing leaves the board when it misses

Not a sportsbook · no wagers accepted · nothing here is advice · read Fri 7:24 PM ET · 85 reads this week · model baseline-usage-0.4+03571d4710af · board/nfl/2026/wk10

299 lines posted.The model leans on 156.

153 cleared · 108 missed

50 carried · 49 broke

A gap of 4 points or more between the model and the market.

Chance to clear each threshold

This line, game by game

What leans this size have done

Line since open

299 lines posted.
The model leans on 156.