WR · BUF · 2018–2026

DJ Moore

This period's fantasy distribution

2026 Week 2 · vs DET · as of Tue, Sep 15, 11:41 PM ET

P(points ≤ x), PPR. Median 12.6 · 10th–90th percentile 4.4–23.0.

Clears	5+ pts	10+ pts	15+ pts	20+ pts	25+ pts	30+ pts
Probability	89%	65%	38%	18%	6%	2%

What it is built from

MARKET Rec 1.5: 91% · 2.5: 81% · 3.5: 64% · 4.5: 48% · 5.5: 27% · 6.5: 17% · 7.5: 9% · 8.5: 6% · 9.5: 3%
DERIVED Rec Yds — receptions × yards per catch by position
MARKET Car — no rush-attempts ladder listed; contributes 0
DERIVED Rush Yds — attempts × yards per carry by position
ANCHORED TD — player TD rate scaled by the game total and spread

Source: kalshi · research/implied.py arm A: mid of each rung, no de-vig (exchange); isotonic survival fit; Gaussian copula receptions↔receiving yards; Monte Carlo · 4,000 simulations · game total 53.5, spread −4.5 (nflverse games)

The method was validated on sportsbook ladders, 2023-25 (q90 coverage 0.101 against 0.100). The Kalshi-ladder arm used here has not been independently validated.

Usage trend

Season

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Game log

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Fantasy history

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Season and career

Season	G	Avg snap %	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Car	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Att	Cmp	Pass Yds	Pass TD	Fum Lost	2-Pt	PPR/G
2026	1	76%	8	5	100	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	21.0
2025	17	85%	85	50	682	6	15	79	1	1	1	2	1	1	0	10.0
2025 post	2	79%	15	11	116	2	2	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17.4
2024	17	94%	140	98	966	6	14	75	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	14.0
2023	17	91%	136	96	1,364	8	4	21	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	16.9
2022	17	96%	118	63	888	7	10	53	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11.7
2021	17	87%	163	93	1,157	4	8	48	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	14.0
2020	15	87%	118	66	1,193	4	2	22	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	14.1
2019	15	87%	135	87	1,175	4	6	40	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	15.4
2018	16	69%	82	55	788	2	13	172	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	9.8
Career (REG)	132	87%	985	613	8,313	42	72	510	2	3	1	2	1	8	2	13.3

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generated Tue, Sep 15, 11:41 PM ET