Teams

The bar is net points, scored minus allowed, drawn from zero, so its direction and length are the only thing it says; every card shares one scale, set by the page's maximum net. Record and points are the manifest's season summary for each team.

Inside each division the order is the standings, not the alphabet: record first, then the league's tiebreaking procedure wherever clubs are level, worked from the export's own game results. Steps that placed a club this time: head-to-head, division record. The procedure's last steps, net touchdowns in all games and coin toss, are not applied: the export carries neither. No tie reached them.

Scored walk-forward on 768 team-seasons, 2002 to 2025 (12,446 forecasts), the projected final wins missed by 1.76 wins, root mean square, against 3.08 for the pace line and 1.99 for the standings with every game left a coin flip. With whole seasons resampled, the model is better than the pace line and better than the coin-flip standings.

Walk-forward, the central 80% band held the real final record 89.5% of the time, consistent with the 90.1% of simulations inside it.

Each row is the simulated final wins: the faint span holds the central 95%, the stronger one the central 80%, and each row's title gives the share of simulations inside each, since whole wins make a band hold a little over its name. LEFT ranks the games still to play for a league-average team, by the model's ratings.

7 seeds a conference: the division leaders first, ordered among themselves, then the wild cards, all by the same procedure as the standings. Seed 1 has a bye; the others meet highest seed against lowest. Each club has played 8–9 of its 17 games, so this is where the seeds fall on today's results and nothing more: it says nothing about where anyone finishes. No club is shown as clinched or eliminated, because that needs every remaining game worked through and this page does not do it.