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DEN · AFC West

Denver Broncos

7–2AFC West · 1st1999–2026 in the record464 games with a final score

2026, every week, played or not

9 OF 17 PLAYED
1L
2W
3W
4L
5W
6W
7W
8W
9W
10B
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
WinLossNot yet playedBye

Overview

NEXT · WEEK 11vs Las Vegas RaidersLineDEN −8.5Total41.5Sunday, Nov 22, 4:25 PM ET · opposing coach Klint Kubiak. Line and total from the nflverse schedule file, capture time not recorded.
LAST RESULT · WEEK 9W 26–21@ Carolina PanthersDEN26CAR21Margin +5. Listed line −3; against-the-spread results come once lines are confirmed as closing.
MARGIN · 2026+1.3points a gameWidest +14 at Arizona Cardinals; narrowest −21 at Kansas City Chiefs. Eight games still to fill in.
Chance to win the division

AFC West, week 9 the last complete. Showing the model's chance.

  • DEN76%
  • KC23%
  • LV<2%
  • LAC<2%

Season path

198 points for through week 9 of 2026: 9 of 17 games, every week drawn.

050100150200W1W2W3W4W5W6W7W8W9W10W11W12W13W14W15W16W17W181030607497114144172198
Through week 9198
Per game22.0
Projected final wins, 10 to 14 in the central 80%12.4
PlayedNot yet playedBye, week 10
How this is computed

Cumulative points for across the 18-week season, read from this team's own schedule. The axis is drawn complete from week 1: the weeks carrying a result are solid, and every week after them is in the unplayed empty state.

Nothing here is the average so far carried over the games left. The one figure that looks forward is the season model's projected final wins, beside the chart on every tab.

On the Wins tab the dashed line is the season model instead: its mean cumulative wins, week by week, with the central 80% and 95% of its simulations as bands. Each game left carries the model's chance to win it.

Scored walk-forward on 768 team-seasons, 2002 to 2025 (12,446 forecasts), the projected final wins missed by 1.76 wins, root mean square, against 3.08 for the pace line and 1.99 for the standings with every game left a coin flip. With whole seasons resampled, the model is better than the pace line and better than the coin-flip standings.

Walk-forward, the central 80% band held the real final record 89.5% of the time, consistent with the 90.1% of simulations inside it.

Schedule and results

9 of 17 games in 2026 carry a final score.

WEEK 1Sep 14@ Kansas City ChiefsL 10–31 −21LINE +2.5 · O/U 42.5Andy Reid
WEEK 2Sep 20vs Jacksonville JaguarsW 20–13 +7LINE −2.5 · O/U 45.5Liam Coen
WEEK 3Sep 27vs Los Angeles RamsW 30–26 +4LINE −1.5 · O/U 43.5Sean McVay
WEEK 4Oct 4@ San Francisco 49ersL 14–24 −10LINE +3 · O/U 48.5Kyle Shanahan
WEEK 5Oct 11@ Los Angeles ChargersW 23–17 +6LINE −3.5 · O/U 42.5Jim Harbaugh
WEEK 6Oct 15vs Seattle SeahawksW 17–14 +3LINE +2.5 · O/U 40.5Mike Macdonald
WEEK 7Oct 25@ Arizona CardinalsW 30–16 +14LINE −4.5 · O/U 44.5Mike LaFleur
WEEK 8Nov 1vs Kansas City ChiefsW 28–24 +4LINE −1.5 · O/U 41.5Andy Reid
WEEK 9Nov 8@ Carolina PanthersW 26–21 +5LINE −3 · O/U 44.5Dave Canales
WEEK 10

Bye

WEEK 11Nov 22vs Las Vegas RaidersNot yet playedLINE −8.5 · O/U 41.5Klint Kubiak
WEEK 12Nov 27@ Pittsburgh SteelersNot yet playedMike McCarthy
WEEK 13Dec 6vs Miami DolphinsNot yet playedJeff Hafley
WEEK 14Dec 13@ New York JetsNot yet playedAaron Glenn
WEEK 15Dec 20@ Las Vegas RaidersNot yet playedKlint Kubiak
WEEK 16Dec 25vs Buffalo BillsNot yet playedJoe Brady
WEEK 17Jan 3@ New England PatriotsNot yet playedMike Vrabel
WEEK 18Jan 10vs Los Angeles ChargersNot yet playedJim Harbaugh

Result against the spread: coming once the schedule's lines are confirmed as closing lines. Line and total come from the nflverse schedule file; capture time is not recorded, so neither is confirmed as the closing line.

Line and total: nflverse schedule file, capture time not recorded, not confirmed as the closing line.

How this is computed

Games played before a relocation are shown under the current franchise.

Margin is points for minus points against, from the row's own two scores. The line is from this team's side: the favourite carries the minus sign.

Offense and defense, by unit

22.0 points a game in 2026, over 9 games.

Points / game22.02026 · 9 GAMES
Pass + rush attempts / game56.72026 · 9 GAMES
Neutral situations · 2025POINT AND INTERVAL · N = 17
Neutral pace, seconds per play29.3s 27.8s–30.9s
Neutral plays per game40.4 34.0–46.4

No 2026 value is published yet for Neutral pace, seconds per play, Neutral plays per game, so each is shown for the season named beside it.

Coming once the analytics export carries per-team play-by-play

Neutral early-down pass rateEPA / play, offenseEPA / play allowed, defensePressure rate generatedPressure rate allowedSack-or-hit rate generated (not pressure)

Rank of 32 is not drawn: an order over teams whose figures overlap within their uncertainty asserts a separation the figures do not support.

How this is computed

Season totals over the games they were recorded across, from this team's own file.

The rows under them are the analytics export's, one value per team per season, each with its interval and n, the number of games it rests on. Under 5 is shown muted and marked: the interval is honest, and too wide to read. The interval's construction is the file's own. Rows of one format share one axis; rows of different formats never do.

Neutral pace, seconds per play. seconds between snaps within a drive, neutral situations only

Neutral plays per game. run and pass plays in neutral situations, per game; still partly a scoreboard measure - a team blown out weekly has fewer by construction

Roster · usage share

J.K. Dobbins leads the offense with 22% of the team's targets and carries in 2026.

RB 49%WR 33%TE 10%QB 8%FB 1%
RBJ.K. Dobbins922%4%44%36%
RBJonah Coleman513%5%21%48%
WRJaylen Waddle911%20%1%59%
RBRJ Harvey611%11%11%39%
WRCourtland Sutton910%18%0%78%
QBBo Nix98%0%17%100%
TEEvan Engram96%12%0%53%
WRMarvin Mims Jr.74%6%2%24%
WRPat Bryant54%7%0%60%
WRTroy Franklin83%6%0%45%
RBTyler Badie53%3%3%16%
TEAdam Trautman52%4%0%51%
TENate Adkins62%3%0%32%
WRLil'Jordan Humphrey41%2%0%18%
FBAdam Prentice81%1%0%13%
RBCody Schrader20%0%0%2%
WRKolbe Katsis10%0%0%0%

Offensive line, 5 players at 99% to 100% snap share: Ben Powers, Luke Wattenberg, Garett Bolles, Mike McGlinchey, Quinn Meinerz. 28 defensive and 3 special-teams players are on the roster and not drawn. The file carries offensive snap share only, and a column of zeros would be a false figure about each of them.

How this is computed

Volume, not efficiency. On offense each player is ranked by opportunity share: the player's targets plus carries, over the team's targets plus carries, summed over the season. The team file carries no count of plays, so the whole is the team's own opportunities, and a team's shares add up to all of them. The stacked bar is those shares, player by player, each in its position's colour; a row's bar is drawn against the leader's.

Linemen carry snaps and no targets or carries, so they are one line with the spread of their offensive snap share. A player at any position with a target or a carry is ranked. Snap share on this page is offensive snaps only, so it is not shown for defenders or specialists at all.

PPR/G: each game this player's row in the components table carries for this team, scored under the PPR preset, summed, and divided by those games. A player the table does not carry has a dash, not a zero.

Offensive splits by season

Per-game figures, regular season: 28 seasons, 1999–2026.

Points per game, by season

1999–2026 · 2026 IS NINE GAMES
19.6'9921.3'0123.8'0324.7'0520.0'0720.4'0919.3'1137.9'1322.2'1518.1'1717.6'1919.7'2121.0'2323.6'2522.0'26
Offense, per game
SeasonG
2026928.8192.21.224.891.41.031.919.3192.21.222.00.4
20251734.4231.21.526.8118.71.136.122.8231.21.523.60.6
20241732.3224.01.827.1112.20.733.522.3224.01.825.00.7
20231728.1209.81.626.5106.50.530.219.8209.81.621.00.5
20221731.8235.71.126.1113.80.633.620.3235.71.116.90.9
20211730.4226.81.226.8119.10.931.820.8226.81.219.70.5
20201633.3229.61.327.6119.90.834.819.8229.61.320.21.4
20191630.1212.61.025.6103.90.731.519.5212.61.017.60.6
20181635.3245.61.224.6119.21.136.822.9245.61.220.60.9
20171634.4229.31.228.6115.80.535.420.8229.31.218.11.4
20161634.8244.61.325.692.80.735.621.2244.61.320.80.7
20151637.8263.51.225.7107.40.837.923.0263.51.222.21.4
20141637.7298.72.527.7111.60.937.924.9298.72.530.10.9
20131641.9348.33.428.8117.11.042.228.8348.33.437.90.6
20121636.5291.92.330.1114.50.836.825.1291.92.330.10.7
20111626.4169.31.334.1164.50.726.813.6169.31.319.30.8
20101636.1269.11.624.996.50.836.320.9269.11.621.50.8
20091634.6239.11.327.5114.80.634.921.3239.11.320.40.8
200816—284.01.624.2116.40.938.824.1284.01.623.11.1
200716—234.91.326.8122.30.632.220.4234.91.320.00.9
200616—187.21.330.5134.50.828.416.0187.21.319.91.1
200516—210.81.133.8159.01.629.117.4210.81.124.70.4
200416—255.61.733.3146.60.832.618.9255.61.723.81.3
200316—195.41.233.9164.31.329.917.5195.41.223.81.1
20021633.8258.71.328.6141.61.334.622.4258.71.324.51.3
20011631.0200.51.630.1117.30.431.919.5200.51.621.31.2
20001634.4279.01.832.3145.31.335.622.1279.01.830.30.8
19991633.3227.91.029.1116.50.834.419.9227.91.019.61.1

Tgt is not recorded for 2003–2008.

The record carries 28 seasons, 1999–2026; the splits cover all 28.

Defense, per game
SeasonG
2026920.740.61.130.75.42.99.10.95.80.90.10.0
20251718.335.20.931.54.84.09.60.65.50.50.10.0
2025 POST220.041.02.036.06.04.08.51.02.52.00.00.0
20241718.335.85.127.15.53.78.40.94.00.70.20.1
2024 POST131.048.01.031.03.02.04.00.01.00.00.00.0
20231724.335.47.223.53.42.55.90.63.61.10.00.0
20221721.135.26.826.33.32.14.80.93.90.90.00.1
20211718.934.03.722.43.42.14.90.84.30.40.10.0
20201627.943.11.519.03.82.65.80.64.00.80.00.0
20191619.839.03.622.14.62.54.90.64.40.60.00.0
20181621.840.93.118.84.22.75.91.15.10.80.10.0
20171623.938.62.814.64.72.14.80.63.90.50.10.0
20161618.644.32.816.13.22.67.10.95.21.00.20.0
20151618.544.21.713.85.43.37.70.95.21.40.30.1
2015 POST314.740.74.316.34.34.711.01.08.32.00.00.0
20141622.143.33.112.35.02.65.81.15.70.90.10.1
2014 POST124.050.00.016.03.00.05.02.06.00.00.00.0
20131624.943.23.215.15.52.65.81.16.11.00.10.0
2013 POST325.333.37.310.02.72.02.70.03.70.00.00.0
20121618.141.62.015.95.13.36.11.04.71.20.30.1
2012 POST138.054.00.014.00.01.03.00.07.00.00.00.0
20111624.447.02.613.6—2.55.10.63.80.70.20.0
2011 POST234.039.00.024.0—2.54.51.04.51.00.00.0
20101629.446.57.311.1—1.43.80.64.80.80.00.0
20091620.341.97.612.9—2.44.01.15.31.30.00.0
20081628.041.49.514.4—1.62.60.43.30.60.00.0
20071625.644.15.612.6—1.92.50.94.41.30.00.0
20061619.143.69.314.8—2.33.61.14.81.40.10.0
20051616.141.54.69.8—1.8—1.36.81.30.20.1
2005 POST223.542.06.516.5—1.0—1.04.51.50.00.0
20041619.037.47.914.8—2.4—0.85.81.10.10.0
2004 POST149.035.016.016.0—1.0—1.03.00.00.00.0
20031618.839.16.411.4—2.2—0.65.91.10.10.0
2003 POST141.040.010.010.0—0.0—0.01.02.00.00.0
20021621.543.08.012.14.32.42.30.64.00.90.10.1
20011621.244.45.79.15.12.42.21.45.40.90.10.0
20001623.141.34.78.25.02.82.61.75.91.40.30.0
2000 POST121.042.011.011.03.02.00.00.01.01.00.00.0
19991619.942.37.811.64.53.12.80.94.51.30.10.1

TFL is not recorded for 2003–2011. QB Hits is not recorded for 2003–2005.

Yards allowed per game: not in the export, so the defensive table carries points allowed and the counting stats only.

How this is computed

Season totals divided by the games they were recorded over, each unit on its own. A rate the source publishes as a rate is left as one. The chart draws the regular seasons only.

Head coaches

28 seasons

8 head coaches across 28 seasons.

SeasonHead coach
2026Sean Payton
2025Sean Payton
2024Sean Payton
2023Sean Payton
2022Nathaniel Hackett
2021Vic Fangio
2020Vic Fangio
2019Vic Fangio
2018Vance Joseph
2017Vance Joseph
2016Gary Kubiak
2015Gary Kubiak
2014John Fox
2013John Fox
2012John Fox
2011John Fox
2010Josh McDaniels
2009Josh McDaniels
2008Mike Shanahan
2007Mike Shanahan
2006Mike Shanahan
2005Mike Shanahan
2004Mike Shanahan
2003Mike Shanahan
2002Mike Shanahan
2001Mike Shanahan
2000Mike Shanahan
1999Mike Shanahan

In the news

472 scheduled · 464 played · 53 roster rowsLines not confirmed as closingData through week 9, 2026Generated Wed, Nov 11, 9:48 AM ET