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NFLTeamsCar

CAR · NFC South

Carolina Panthers

3–5NFC South · 1st1999–2026 in the record461 games with a final score

2026, every week, played or not

8 OF 17 PLAYED
1L
2W
3L
4W
5B
6W
7L
8L
9L
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
WinLossNot yet playedBye

Overview

NEXT · WEEK 10@ New Orleans SaintsLineCAR +2.5Total48.5Sunday, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET · opposing coach Kellen Moore. Line and total from the nflverse schedule file, capture time not recorded.
LAST RESULT · WEEK 9L 21–26vs Denver BroncosCAR21DEN26Margin −5. Listed line +3; against-the-spread results come once lines are confirmed as closing.
MARGIN · 2026−2.5points a gameWidest +31 at Atlanta Falcons; narrowest −30 against Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Nine games still to fill in.
Chance to win the division

NFC South, week 9 the last complete. Showing the model's chance.

  • TB44%
  • CAR21%
  • NO19%
  • ATL16%

Season path

199 points for through week 9 of 2026: 8 of 17 games, every week drawn.

050100150200W1W2W3W4W5W6W7W8W9W10W11W12W13W14W15W16W17W18377189121146159178199
Through week 9199
Per game24.9
Projected final wins, 4 to 9 in the central 80%6.7
PlayedNot yet playedBye, week 5
How this is computed

Cumulative points for across the 18-week season, read from this team's own schedule. The axis is drawn complete from week 1: the weeks carrying a result are solid, and every week after them is in the unplayed empty state.

Nothing here is the average so far carried over the games left. The one figure that looks forward is the season model's projected final wins, beside the chart on every tab.

On the Wins tab the dashed line is the season model instead: its mean cumulative wins, week by week, with the central 80% and 95% of its simulations as bands. Each game left carries the model's chance to win it.

Scored walk-forward on 768 team-seasons, 2002 to 2025 (12,446 forecasts), the projected final wins missed by 1.76 wins, root mean square, against 3.08 for the pace line and 1.99 for the standings with every game left a coin flip. With whole seasons resampled, the model is better than the pace line and better than the coin-flip standings.

Walk-forward, the central 80% band held the real final record 89.5% of the time, consistent with the 90.1% of simulations inside it.

Schedule and results

8 of 17 games in 2026 carry a final score.

WEEK 1Sep 13vs Chicago BearsL 37–59 −22LINE +3 · O/U 47.5Ben Johnson
WEEK 2Sep 20@ Atlanta FalconsW 34–3 +31LINE −2.5 · O/U 43.5Kevin Stefanski
WEEK 3Sep 27@ Cleveland BrownsL 18–21 −3LINE −2.5 · O/U 41.5Todd Monken
WEEK 4Oct 4vs Detroit LionsW 32–26 +6LINE +4.5 · O/U 52.5Dan Campbell
WEEK 5

Bye

WEEK 6Oct 18@ Philadelphia EaglesW 25–14 +11LINE −3 · O/U 39.5Nick Sirianni
WEEK 7Oct 25vs Tampa Bay BuccaneersL 13–43 −30LINE −3 · O/U 44.5Todd Bowles
WEEK 8Oct 29@ Green Bay PackersL 19–27 −8LINE +3.5 · O/U 47.5Matt LaFleur
WEEK 9Nov 8vs Denver BroncosL 21–26 −5LINE +3 · O/U 44.5Sean Payton
WEEK 10Nov 15@ New Orleans SaintsNot yet playedLINE +2.5 · O/U 48.5Kellen Moore
WEEK 11Nov 22vs Baltimore RavensNot yet playedLINE −1.5 · O/U 44.5Jesse Minter
WEEK 12Nov 30@ Tampa Bay BuccaneersNot yet playedTodd Bowles
WEEK 13Dec 6@ Minnesota VikingsNot yet playedKevin O'Connell
WEEK 14Dec 13vs New Orleans SaintsNot yet playedKellen Moore
WEEK 15Dec 20vs Cincinnati BengalsNot yet playedZac Taylor
WEEK 16Dec 27@ Pittsburgh SteelersNot yet playedMike McCarthy
WEEK 17Jan 3vs Seattle SeahawksNot yet playedMike Macdonald
WEEK 18Jan 10vs Atlanta FalconsNot yet playedKevin Stefanski

Result against the spread: coming once the schedule's lines are confirmed as closing lines. Line and total come from the nflverse schedule file; capture time is not recorded, so neither is confirmed as the closing line.

Line and total: nflverse schedule file, capture time not recorded, not confirmed as the closing line.

How this is computed

Games played before a relocation are shown under the current franchise.

Margin is points for minus points against, from the row's own two scores. The line is from this team's side: the favourite carries the minus sign.

Offense and defense, by unit

24.9 points a game in 2026, over 8 games.

Points / game24.92026 · 8 GAMES
Pass + rush attempts / game62.82026 · 8 GAMES
Neutral situations · 2025POINT AND INTERVAL · N = 17
Neutral pace, seconds per play31.4s 30.0s–32.6s
Neutral plays per game34.2 28.4–39.6

No 2026 value is published yet for Neutral pace, seconds per play, Neutral plays per game, so each is shown for the season named beside it.

Coming once the analytics export carries per-team play-by-play

Neutral early-down pass rateEPA / play, offenseEPA / play allowed, defensePressure rate generatedPressure rate allowedSack-or-hit rate generated (not pressure)

Rank of 32 is not drawn: an order over teams whose figures overlap within their uncertainty asserts a separation the figures do not support.

How this is computed

Season totals over the games they were recorded across, from this team's own file.

The rows under them are the analytics export's, one value per team per season, each with its interval and n, the number of games it rests on. Under 5 is shown muted and marked: the interval is honest, and too wide to read. The interval's construction is the file's own. Rows of one format share one axis; rows of different formats never do.

Neutral pace, seconds per play. seconds between snaps within a drive, neutral situations only

Neutral plays per game. run and pass plays in neutral situations, per game; still partly a scoreboard measure - a team blown out weekly has fewer by construction

Roster · usage share

Chuba Hubbard leads the offense with 35% of the team's targets and carries in 2026.

RB 45%WR 35%TE 17%QB 3%
RBChuba Hubbard835%11%71%80%
WRTetairoa McMillan815%25%0%82%
WRJalen Coker711%17%1%72%
TEDarren Waller87%12%0%49%
TETommy Tremble86%11%0%57%
WRJohn Metchie III75%8%0%37%
RBAJ Dillon44%1%9%12%
TEMitchell Evans83%5%1%46%
RBTrevor Etienne43%1%5%13%
WRBrycen Tremayne83%4%0%42%
RBJonathon Brooks23%1%5%25%
QBBryce Young82%0%6%95%
WRXavier Legette21%2%0%52%
WRDavid Moore61%1%0%6%
QBKenny Pickett31%0%2%13%
RBAnthony Tyus III51%0%2%2%
WRJimmy Horn Jr.10%0%0%21%
WRJa'Seem Reed10%0%0%13%
TEFeleipe Franks50%0%0%4%

Offensive line, 5 players at 36% to 99% snap share: Rasheed Walker, Luke Fortner, Monroe Freeling, Robert Hunt, Stone Forsythe. 35 defensive and 2 special-teams players are on the roster and not drawn. The file carries offensive snap share only, and a column of zeros would be a false figure about each of them.

How this is computed

Volume, not efficiency. On offense each player is ranked by opportunity share: the player's targets plus carries, over the team's targets plus carries, summed over the season. The team file carries no count of plays, so the whole is the team's own opportunities, and a team's shares add up to all of them. The stacked bar is those shares, player by player, each in its position's colour; a row's bar is drawn against the leader's.

Linemen carry snaps and no targets or carries, so they are one line with the spread of their offensive snap share. A player at any position with a target or a carry is ranked. Snap share on this page is offensive snaps only, so it is not shown for defenders or specialists at all.

PPR/G: each game this player's row in the components table carries for this team, scored under the PPR preset, summed, and divided by those games. A player the table does not carry has a dash, not a zero.

Offensive splits by season

Per-game figures, regular season: 28 seasons, 1999–2026.

Points per game, by season

1999–2026 · 2026 IS EIGHT GAMES
26.3'9915.8'0120.3'0324.4'0516.7'0719.7'0925.4'1122.9'1331.3'1522.7'1721.3'1917.9'2113.9'2318.3'2524.9'26
Offense, per game
SeasonG
2026835.4280.52.023.6101.30.939.123.6280.52.024.90.8
20251728.2194.41.427.1116.30.530.319.4194.41.418.30.7
20241730.5200.61.324.1110.51.132.220.1200.61.320.10.9
20231731.4190.90.826.2104.10.434.520.6190.90.813.90.6
20221725.1190.90.928.4130.00.926.915.7190.90.920.40.8
20211733.8210.20.826.8108.41.035.220.5210.20.817.91.2
20201632.9258.11.025.4106.51.234.423.3258.11.021.91.0
20191637.5258.41.124.1113.71.339.623.9258.41.121.31.3
20181634.0254.41.826.0133.51.135.223.6254.41.823.51.0
20171630.8207.41.430.6131.40.931.318.3207.41.422.71.0
20161634.6247.61.328.3113.41.035.219.1247.61.323.11.2
20151630.9242.12.232.9142.61.231.318.8242.12.231.30.6
20141633.8239.31.429.6127.30.634.120.4239.31.421.20.8
20131629.2211.21.530.2126.60.929.618.3211.21.522.90.8
20121630.3245.41.228.9130.51.330.617.8245.41.222.30.8
20111632.0255.61.327.8150.51.632.419.5255.61.325.41.1
20101629.3164.70.626.8115.40.430.316.0164.70.612.31.3
20091628.5191.91.032.8156.11.129.116.5191.91.019.71.3
200816—205.30.931.5152.41.925.915.4205.30.925.90.8
200716—183.41.228.2114.00.431.617.8182.41.216.71.1
200616—217.91.226.4103.70.433.720.3217.91.216.91.1
200516—217.81.630.4104.91.128.116.8217.81.624.41.0
200416—243.11.826.498.90.633.519.4243.11.822.20.9
200316—202.41.232.6130.90.628.816.9202.41.220.31.0
20021628.1186.30.928.399.10.729.015.9186.30.916.11.4
20011635.5193.60.822.185.80.636.219.6193.60.815.81.4
20001634.6240.61.222.774.10.435.421.3240.61.219.41.2
19991635.3277.92.322.195.40.835.821.6277.92.326.30.9

Tgt is not recorded for 2003–2008.

The record carries 28 seasons, 1999–2026; the splits cover all 28.

Defense, per game
SeasonG
2026827.439.60.428.43.81.44.00.65.50.80.10.0
20251722.434.61.132.73.81.83.40.93.80.50.10.0
2025 POST134.040.01.027.02.01.06.01.08.00.00.00.0
20241731.438.24.233.33.81.93.80.54.00.50.00.0
20231724.531.96.325.63.21.64.40.53.80.30.10.0
20221722.038.44.825.64.42.15.40.63.60.50.10.0
20211723.836.14.623.84.12.35.50.53.10.80.00.0
20201625.136.31.325.53.21.85.60.43.60.90.00.0
20191629.441.41.719.74.53.36.80.94.20.50.00.1
20181623.936.23.418.94.82.14.40.84.40.80.00.0
20171620.436.91.420.14.33.16.60.63.50.90.00.0
2017 POST131.041.00.06.05.01.04.01.03.01.00.00.0
20161625.141.91.820.74.62.95.81.14.41.10.10.1
20151619.340.62.621.05.42.86.91.55.31.40.30.0
2015 POST321.033.32.024.05.04.38.32.36.71.70.70.0
20141623.440.00.919.74.02.55.00.94.61.40.10.0
2014 POST223.527.50.024.06.53.03.51.02.51.00.00.0
20131615.140.22.218.35.63.76.61.34.20.70.30.0
2013 POST123.029.00.038.06.01.06.00.04.00.00.00.0
20121622.742.21.422.63.92.44.30.74.01.00.20.1
20111626.841.63.416.3—1.93.10.94.60.80.00.1
20101625.546.17.314.6—1.94.71.14.40.90.10.1
20091619.343.28.012.6—1.94.21.44.31.40.10.1
20081620.645.85.910.1—2.33.10.85.31.10.00.0
2008 POST133.058.09.011.0—1.05.01.01.00.00.00.0
20071621.746.86.612.2—1.42.90.94.41.10.10.0
20061619.143.36.914.0—2.54.30.94.80.90.10.1
20051616.244.25.612.6—2.6—1.45.91.10.10.0
2005 POST318.340.013.013.0—2.3—1.35.30.30.00.0
20041621.244.87.112.3—2.1—1.66.01.20.10.0
20031619.043.97.611.6—2.4—1.05.10.90.20.0
2003 POST417.044.59.317.8—2.5—2.38.50.50.00.0
20021618.945.76.113.05.13.32.61.16.71.40.10.0
20011625.646.67.713.44.31.61.71.55.10.90.10.0
20001619.445.17.810.84.31.71.41.14.31.40.10.1
19991623.845.05.811.73.82.12.20.96.51.00.00.0

TFL is not recorded for 2003–2011. QB Hits is not recorded for 2003–2005.

Yards allowed per game: not in the export, so the defensive table carries points allowed and the counting stats only.

How this is computed

Season totals divided by the games they were recorded over, each unit on its own. A rate the source publishes as a rate is left as one. The chart draws the regular seasons only.

Head coaches

28 seasons

7 head coaches across 28 seasons.

SeasonHead coach
2026Dave Canales
2025Dave Canales
2024Dave Canales
2023Frank Reich
2022Steve Wilks
2021Matt Rhule
2020Matt Rhule
2019Ron Rivera
2018Ron Rivera
2017Ron Rivera
2016Ron Rivera
2015Ron Rivera
2014Ron Rivera
2013Ron Rivera
2012Ron Rivera
2011Ron Rivera
2010John Fox
2009John Fox
2008John Fox
2007John Fox
2006John Fox
2005John Fox
2004John Fox
2003John Fox
2002John Fox
2001George Seifert
2000George Seifert
1999George Seifert

In the news

470 scheduled · 461 played · 61 roster rowsLines not confirmed as closingData through week 9, 2026Generated Wed, Nov 11, 9:48 AM ET