TE · DET · 2023–2026
Sam LaPorta
This period's fantasy distribution
2026 Week 2 · vs BUF · as of Tue, Sep 15, 11:41 PM ET
| Clears | 5+ pts | 10+ pts | 15+ pts | 20+ pts | 25+ pts | 30+ pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability | 87% | 58% | 30% | 12% | 4% | 1% |
What it is built from
- MARKET Rec 1.5: 89% · 2.5: 79% · 3.5: 64% · 4.5: 44% · 5.5: 25% · 6.5: 17% · 7.5: 10% · 8.5: 4% · 9.5: 3%
- DERIVED Rec Yds — receptions × yards per catch by position
- MARKET Car — no rush-attempts ladder listed; contributes 0
- DERIVED Rush Yds — attempts × yards per carry by position
- ANCHORED TD — player TD rate scaled by the game total and spread
Source: kalshi · research/implied.py arm A: mid of each rung, no de-vig (exchange); isotonic survival fit; Gaussian copula receptions↔receiving yards; Monte Carlo · 4,000 simulations · game total 53.5, spread +4.5 (nflverse games)
The method was validated on sportsbook ladders, 2023-25 (q90 coverage 0.101 against 0.100). The Kalshi-ladder arm used here has not been independently validated.
Usage trend
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Game log
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Fantasy history
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Season and career
| Season | G | Avg snap % | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Att | Cmp | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Fum Lost | 2-Pt | Ret TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | 81% | 8 | 5 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.8 |
| 2025 | 9 | 91% | 49 | 40 | 489 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11.9 |
| 2024 | 16 | 85% | 83 | 60 | 726 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.9 |
| 2024 post | 1 | 97% | 7 | 6 | 51 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.1 |
| 2023 | 17 | 83% | 120 | 86 | 889 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 14.1 |
| 2023 post | 3 | 85% | 27 | 21 | 176 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.9 |
| Career (REG) | 43 | 85% | 260 | 191 | 2,152 | 20 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 12.3 |
generated Tue, Sep 15, 11:41 PM ET