TE · BUF · 2023–2026
Dalton Kincaid
This period's fantasy distribution
2026 Week 2 · vs DET · as of Tue, Sep 15, 11:41 PM ET
| Clears | 5+ pts | 10+ pts | 15+ pts | 20+ pts | 25+ pts | 30+ pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability | 81% | 49% | 21% | 8% | 2% | 0% |
What it is built from
- MARKET Rec 1.5: 88% · 2.5: 73% · 3.5: 59% · 4.5: 36% · 5.5: 20% · 6.5: 12% · 7.5: 6% · 8.5: 6% · 9.5: 11%
- DERIVED Rec Yds — receptions × yards per catch by position
- MARKET Car — no rush-attempts ladder listed; contributes 0
- DERIVED Rush Yds — attempts × yards per carry by position
- ANCHORED TD — player TD rate scaled by the game total and spread
Source: kalshi · research/implied.py arm A: mid of each rung, no de-vig (exchange); isotonic survival fit; Gaussian copula receptions↔receiving yards; Monte Carlo · 4,000 simulations · game total 53.5, spread −4.5 (nflverse games)
The method was validated on sportsbook ladders, 2023-25 (q90 coverage 0.101 against 0.100). The Kalshi-ladder arm used here has not been independently validated.
Usage trend
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Game log
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Fantasy history
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Season and career
| Season | G | Avg snap % | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Att | Cmp | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Fum Lost | 2-Pt | Ret TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | 72% | 6 | 5 | 130 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18.0 |
| 2025 | 12 | 37% | 49 | 39 | 571 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.5 |
| 2025 post | 2 | 47% | 11 | 9 | 111 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16.1 |
| 2024 | 13 | 57% | 75 | 44 | 448 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.8 |
| 2024 post | 3 | 45% | 9 | 6 | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.4 |
| 2023 | 16 | 63% | 91 | 73 | 673 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9.4 |
| 2023 post | 2 | 59% | 11 | 8 | 104 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12.2 |
| Career (REG) | 42 | 54% | 221 | 161 | 1,822 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9.4 |
generated Tue, Sep 15, 11:41 PM ET