WR · DET · 2021–2026

Amon-Ra St. Brown

This period's fantasy distribution

2026 Week 2 · vs BUF · as of Tue, Sep 15, 11:41 PM ET

P(points ≤ x), PPR. Median 20.5 · 10th–90th percentile 10.3–33.2.

Clears	5+ pts	10+ pts	15+ pts	20+ pts	25+ pts	30+ pts
Probability	98%	90%	74%	52%	32%	17%

What it is built from

MARKET Rec 3.5: 87% · 4.5: 82% · 5.5: 70% · 6.5: 60% · 7.5: 47% · 8.5: 34% · 9.5: 23% · 10.5: 15% · 11.5: 10% · 12.5: 6% · 13.5: 4% · 14.5: 3%
DERIVED Rec Yds — receptions × yards per catch by position
MARKET Car — no rush-attempts ladder listed; contributes 0
DERIVED Rush Yds — attempts × yards per carry by position
ANCHORED TD — player TD rate scaled by the game total and spread

Source: kalshi · research/implied.py arm A: mid of each rung, no de-vig (exchange); isotonic survival fit; Gaussian copula receptions↔receiving yards; Monte Carlo · 4,000 simulations · game total 53.5, spread +4.5 (nflverse games)

The method was validated on sportsbook ladders, 2023-25 (q90 coverage 0.101 against 0.100). The Kalshi-ladder arm used here has not been independently validated.

Usage trend

Season

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Game log

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Fantasy history

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Season and career

Season	G	Avg snap %	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Car	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Att	Cmp	Pass Yds	Pass TD	Fum Lost	2-Pt	PPR/G
2026	1	90%	14	10	67	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	28.7
2025	17	85%	172	117	1,401	11	3	9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	19.1
2024	17	88%	141	115	1,263	12	2	6	0	1	1	7	1	1	0	18.6
2024 post	1	96%	10	8	137	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	21.7
2023	16	90%	164	119	1,515	10	4	24	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	20.7
2023 post	3	94%	34	22	274	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18.5
2022	16	78%	146	106	1,161	6	9	95	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16.7
2021	16	76%	119	90	912	5	7	61	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	14.2
Career (REG)	83	83%	756	557	6,319	46	25	195	1	1	1	7	1	2	2	18.0

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generated Tue, Sep 15, 11:41 PM ET