What one bet on several results costs

No book's own quoted price for this slip is held here: those would come from parlay/nfl/pricing.json, which is not served yet. The figure below is the price DraftKings posted on each leg, multiplied together, which is how a book prices legs it treats as unrelated.

2 of these legs share a game. A book does not multiply legs from one game: it sets its own same-game price, and that price is not held here. Read the figures on this page as what these legs would pay if each were in a different game.

DraftKings pays

+2843.84 back for each 1 staked

On $10.00

$38.40returned if every leg comes in, $28.40 of it winnings

Otherwise

$0.00returned if any one leg misses

• Leg 1: Dawson Knox over 1.5 receptions−122 · 1.82
• Leg 2: Dalton Kincaid over 3.5 receptions+111 · 2.11
• Multiplied together3.84

Every book on the board that lists all 2 legs

• DraftKings (shown)+284 · keeps 11.1%
• FanDuel+272 · keeps 12.3%

A book prices both sides of a line so that the two chances add up to over 100%. The part over 100% is its cut. Scaling the two sides back to 100% gives each leg's chance with the cut removed, and multiplying those gives the slip's. This uses the two prices DraftKings posted on each leg.

With the cut removed

+3324.32 back for each 1 staked

On $10.00

$43.17returned if every leg comes in

Chance every leg comes in

23.16%if the legs are unrelated

• Leg 1: Dawson Knox over 1.5 receptionspriced as 55.0% · cut removed 51.8%
• Leg 2: Dalton Kincaid over 3.5 receptionspriced as 47.4% · cut removed 44.8%

The book keeps

11.1%of the stake on average, if the legs are unrelated

On $10.00

$1.11kept on average, each time this slip is placed

A winning ticket is short by

$4.78$38.40 paid against $43.17 at the price with the cut removed

To not lose money at this price the slip has to come in 26.05% of the time. The prices with the cut removed say 23.16%. It has to come in 2.88 points more often than that just to break even, which is 1.12 times as often.

How the share kept builds as each leg is added

• 1 leg5.8%
• 2 legs11.1%

Each leg hands the book its own cut, and the slip keeps only what is left after all of them.

Every figure above multiplies the legs as if one coming in told you nothing about another. Whether two results tend to happen together is their correlation, and it is the one thing on this page that prices alone cannot give.

• BUF @ NYJleg 1 and leg 2 are in this game

Legs in one game are not unrelated: they share a score, a pace and a clock. So the multiplied figures above are not what this slip is worth, in one direction or the other.

• Leg 1 with leg 2No measured link. It would come from parlay/nfl/pricing.json, which is not served yet.

Whether DraftKings has priced the link between these legs, and in which direction, cannot be told from here: its same-game price for this slip is not held. This page does not guess.

As one parlay, the book keeps $1.11 of your $10.00 on average; as separate bets of $5.00 each, $0.57. The parlay costs more (1.9 times).

• One parlay, $10.00$1.11
• 2 bets, $5.00 each$0.57

Parlay keeps

11.1%of the money staked, on average

Separate bets keep

5.7%of the money staked, on average

Both routes stake $10.00 at DraftKings on the same legs. The parlay pays only if every leg comes in; each separate bet is graded alone, so one miss costs one bet. Each figure is what the book keeps on average, on either route.

12 of the 85 stored reads of week 10. The slip could be taken at 5 of them; no ticket bought at any of them has settled as this slip.

This is one slip followed through time, priced at DraftKings throughout. It is a price path, not a record: every row is the same legs, so the rows are not separate results, and nothing here says how slips like it do. A ticket is graded against the lines it was bought at, using the results the latest read stores.

The week holds 85 reads and this page walks 12 of them, evenly spaced, with the first and the latest kept.

• Leg 1: Dawson Knox overno result stored yet
• Leg 2: Dalton Kincaid overno result stored yet

1. Tue, Nov 10, 12:04 PM ETNo price: leg 1 and leg 2 were not on the board at this read.
2. Tue, Nov 10, 8:09 PM ETNo price: leg 1 and leg 2 were not on the board at this read.
3. Wed, Nov 11, 3:14 AM ETNo price: leg 1 and leg 2 were not on the board at this read.
4. Wed, Nov 11, 11:19 AM ETNo price: leg 1 and leg 2 were not on the board at this read.
5. Wed, Nov 11, 7:24 PM ETNo price: leg 1 and leg 2 were not on the board at this read.
6. Thu, Nov 12, 2:34 AM ETNo price: leg 1 and leg 2 were not on the board at this read.
7. Thu, Nov 12, 10:34 AM ETNo price: leg 1 and leg 2 were not on the board at this read.
8. Thu, Nov 12, 5:39 PM ETDraftKings pays 3.84 for each 1 staked, $38.40 on $10.00; with the cut removed 4.32; the book keeps 11.1%.Lines: over 1.5 · over 3.5A ticket bought here has not settled at the latest stored read.
9. Thu, Nov 12, 8:09 PM ETDraftKings pays 3.84 for each 1 staked, $38.40 on $10.00; with the cut removed 4.32; the book keeps 11.1%.Lines: over 1.5 · over 3.5A ticket bought here has not settled at the latest stored read.
10. Fri, Nov 13, 4:14 AM ETDraftKings pays 3.84 for each 1 staked, $38.40 on $10.00; with the cut removed 4.32; the book keeps 11.1%.Lines: over 1.5 · over 3.5A ticket bought here has not settled at the latest stored read.
11. Fri, Nov 13, 11:19 AM ETDraftKings pays 3.84 for each 1 staked, $38.40 on $10.00; with the cut removed 4.32; the book keeps 11.1%.Lines: over 1.5 · over 3.5A ticket bought here has not settled at the latest stored read.
12. Fri, Nov 13, 7:24 PM ETDraftKings pays 3.84 for each 1 staked, $38.40 on $10.00; with the cut removed 4.32; the book keeps 11.1%.Lines: over 1.5 · over 3.5A ticket bought here has not settled at the latest stored read.

• BetMGM, every leg an over45,545 settled slips, from weeks 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9, across 78 games.The prices gave these slips a 24.4% chance on average. 10,288 of 45,545 came in, which is 22.6%. The gap is −1.8 points, with an interval from −5.4 to +2.5 from redrawing whole games. That interval includes zero: these slips came in no more and no less often than the prices said, as far as this sample can tell.Left out of 57,608 formed: 2,699 set aside because a leg pushed or was voided, 9,364 with a leg not graded at the latest read.
• BetMGM, every leg an under45,545 settled slips, from weeks 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9, across 78 games.The prices gave these slips a 25.6% chance on average. 12,429 of 45,545 came in, which is 27.3%. The gap is +1.7 points, with an interval from −2.3 to +6.9 from redrawing whole games. That interval includes zero: these slips came in no more and no less often than the prices said, as far as this sample can tell.Left out of 57,608 formed: 2,699 set aside because a leg pushed or was voided, 9,364 with a leg not graded at the latest read.
• DraftKings, every leg an over120,358 settled slips, from weeks 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9, across 91 games.The prices gave these slips a 24.4% chance on average. 26,007 of 120,358 came in, which is 21.6%. The gap is −2.8 points, with an interval from −5.0 to −0.1 from redrawing whole games. That interval sits wholly under zero: these slips came in less often than the prices said.Left out of 143,402 formed: 6,955 set aside because a leg pushed or was voided, 16,089 with a leg not graded at the latest read.
• DraftKings, every leg an under120,358 settled slips, from weeks 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9, across 91 games.The prices gave these slips a 25.6% chance on average. 34,266 of 120,358 came in, which is 28.5%. The gap is +2.8 points, with an interval from +0.1 to +6.0 from redrawing whole games. That interval sits wholly over zero: these slips came in more often than the prices said.Left out of 143,402 formed: 6,955 set aside because a leg pushed or was voided, 16,089 with a leg not graded at the latest read.
• FanDuel, every leg an over136,307 settled slips, from weeks 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9, across 93 games.The prices gave these slips a 24.3% chance on average. 31,017 of 136,307 came in, which is 22.8%. The gap is −1.6 points, with an interval from −4.2 to +1.4 from redrawing whole games. That interval includes zero: these slips came in no more and no less often than the prices said, as far as this sample can tell.Left out of 162,243 formed: 10,462 set aside because a leg pushed or was voided, 15,474 with a leg not graded at the latest read.
• FanDuel, every leg an under136,307 settled slips, from weeks 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9, across 93 games.The prices gave these slips a 25.7% chance on average. 36,871 of 136,307 came in, which is 27.0%. The gap is +1.4 points, with an interval from −1.3 to +4.7 from redrawing whole games. That interval includes zero: these slips came in no more and no less often than the prices said, as far as this sample can tell.Left out of 162,243 formed: 10,462 set aside because a leg pushed or was voided, 15,474 with a leg not graded at the latest read.

The same games stand under every row, so the rows are not separate findings: the over and the under of one line settle opposite ways, and each book is pricing the same lines.

The slips: 2 legs, each in a different game, every leg an over or every leg an under, formed at the last read stored before the first kickoff of the week and priced at one book. Slips sharing a game are left out, since this page holds no measure of how legs in one game move together. A slip is settled when every leg is graded; one holding a push or a void leg is set aside and counted. An interval is printed only when the settled slips number at least 30, come from at least 2 weeks and rest on at least 20 games. This rule was written down before any rate was computed.

These lines exist this week only, so history holds no earlier copy of this exact slip. What can be replayed is the rule it stands for:

2 legs, every leg an over, all in one game, the legs priced in different bands with the cut removed (receptions).

At today's prices this slip has to come in 26.05% of the time to not lose money.