calibrated SPORTS
NFLLines

Lines · 2026 · Week 10 · read Fri 7:24 PM ET

299 lines posted.
The model leans on 156.

Every posted line this week, the market's price, the Second Opinion beside it, and what leans that size have done before. Nothing leaves the board when it misses.

Leans published, week 10
156
27 graded · 129 open · 0 void
Leans cleared, this read
44%
12 of 27 · 95% 28%–63%
Break-even at −110
52.4%
what a lean at that price needs

Week 9, settled

Week 10's market is not broad yet, so this page leads with week 9, as the landing does. What the board said before the games, and what happened. Nothing is removed when it missed.

Leans published, week 9

153 cleared · 108 missed

58.6% of 261 graded cleared, 95% 53%–64%. That interval sits wholly over break-even at −110, 52.4%. 10 leans were void and stay on the ledger. Every lean, graded, on Receipts.

Streaks into week 9

50 carried · 49 broke

101 lines went into week 9 on a streak one of the four rules fired on. 50.5% of the 99 graded carried it, 95% 41%–60%. 2 void. Who carried and who broke.

What a lean is

A gap of 4 points or more between the model and the market.

First opinionThe market’s price
Second OpinionThe model’s

It is published so it can be graded, not because disagreeing has paid. Every lean stays on the record, cleared or missed.

From the board index · board/nfl/2026/wk10/index.json

Week 9: which streaks carried

50 of the 101 streak lines carried into the game, 49 broke, 2 void. A streak carried when the player cleared the line again.

6 or 7 of last 722 of 42 carried
42lines
5 of last 50 of 3 carried
3lines
5 of last 5 away1 of 5 carried
5lines
1 of 1 against this opponent27 of 49 carried
51lines
  • 6 or 7 of last 7: 22 of 42 carried, 52%, 95% 38%–67%. That interval takes in the rule's measured next-game rate, 53.4%, and sits wholly under the lowest rate shown, 86%.
  • 5 of last 5: 0 of 3 carried, 0%, 95% 0%–56%. That interval sits wholly under the rule's measured next-game rate, 56.9%, and sits wholly under the 100% the streak showed.
  • 5 of last 5 away: 1 of 5 carried, 20%, 95% 4%–62%. That interval takes in the rule's measured next-game rate, 51.7%, and sits wholly under the 100% the streak showed.
  • 1 of 1 against this opponent: 27 of 49 carried, 55%, 95% 41%–68%. That interval takes in the rule's measured next-game rate, 45.1%, and sits wholly under the 100% the streak showed.

Carried · 50

Broke · 49

Pushed or void · 2

Each rule fired before the game, against the line posted for it, and is graded on that line. The rate the streak showed is how it read to a reader; the rule’s rate is every earlier time the same rule fired; this week’s interval is a Wilson 95% interval on its own count, so a rule with few lines has a wide one.

Streak check

4 rules fired this week. The rate shown sits 32 to 55 points from the rate the next game cleared at; 4 of 4 sit outside that rate’s 95% interval.

6 or 7 of last 7Measured on 12,953
19lines this week
5 of last 5Measured on 7,452
1line this week
5 of last 5 awayMeasured on 3,013
4lines this week
1 of 1 against this opponentMeasured on 22,887
14lines this week

38 lines, by rule

19 on 6 or 7 of last 7, 1 on 5 of last 5, 4 on 5 of last 5 away, 14 on 1 of 1 against this opponent.

The widest gap

1 of 1 against this opponent

Shown as 100%. Across 22,887 lines the next game cleared 45% of the time [44%–46%], under a coin flip, interval and all.

Above break-even

2 of 4 rules

6 or 7 of last 7 (53.4%, 95% 52.5%–54.3%) and 5 of last 5 (56.9%, 95% 55.6%–58.1%): the whole of each 95% interval sits past 52.4%. 0 of 4 rules' next-game intervals take in the rate the streak shows.

A streak is selected because it hit, so the rate beside it is not an estimate of the next game. Each rule here is fixed in advance, not chosen by who hit, and its next-game rate was measured on every earlier time the same rule fired. The rules: 6 or 7 of last 7; 5 of last 5; 5 of last 5 away; 1 of 1 against this opponent.

This week’s streaks

Every line a rule fired on, with what that rule’s next game has cleared at. 3 lines shown.

All rules 386 or 7 of last 7 195 of last 5 15 of last 5 away 41 of 1 against this opponent 14
Game
All gamesWAS @ NYGNE @ DETBUF @ NYJHOU @ CLEJAX @ TENKC @ ATLMIA @ INDMIN @ GBSEA @ LVSF @ DALPIT @ CIN
BUF @ NYJ3 lines
DJ MooreRec yds 45.5
1 of 1 against this opponent1 of 1

Next game cleared45%

upcoming
DJ MooreRec 3.5
1 of 1 against this opponent1 of 1

Next game cleared45%

upcoming
James CookRush att 19.5
6 or 7 of last 76 of 7

Next game cleared53%

upcoming

Last read Fri 7:24 PM ET · week 10Break-even at −110 is 52.4%Nothing leaves the board when it misses

Not a sportsbook · no wagers accepted · nothing here is advice · read Fri 7:24 PM ET · 85 reads this week · model baseline-usage-0.4+03571d4710af · board/nfl/2026/wk10