Lines · Receipts · 2026

Every lean the model published, graded, none removed.

Win or lose, it’s all here. The model scores worse than the market, and this is the ledger that shows it lean by lean.

1,771

Leans graded, 2026

957–814

Cleared · missed

54.0% [51.7, 56.3]

Hit rate · n = 1,771 cleared or missed

+23.8u [−53.4, +100.9]

Units at the read price · 1,726 of 1,771 leans priced

Running units

Up 23.77 units over 1,726 leans. That is 1,726 of the 1,771 graded leans: the other 45 have no valid price on record, so they count in the record above and not in the units. The interval spans zero, so the record can’t be told apart from breaking even.

Hypothetical units at the read price, lean by lean1 unit a lean · flat

the published leans, 1u eacha coin at the same priceszero

Nobody bet this: it is the published record at the prices that stood. A cleared lean pays what its price pays on one unit; a missed lean loses the unit; a push returns it; a void is not a bet. The price is the median American price on the lean’s side across the benchmark books at the read that published it, as the ledger records it. The dashed line is the same stakes at the same prices if every lean had cleared exactly half the time: a reference, not a verdict. The interval is the total’s, 95%: n × mean ± 1.96 × √n × sd of the per-lean returns, treating leans as independent. Leans in one game are not, so the real interval is wider. 45 settled leans have no valid recorded price (missing, or between −100 and +100, where no American price lies) and are on neither line.

The ledger

One row per lean, in the order it was published. Filter it any way you like; the total never changes.

#	Wk · game	Player	Market	Line	Side	Price	Result	Units
1375	W8 · NE @ MIA	RBRhamondre Stevenson	Rush att	12.5	Under	+100	missedactual 19	−1.00
1376	W8 · NE @ MIA	QBMalik Willis	Rush att	6.5	Under	−110	clearedactual 1	+0.91
1382	W8 · NE @ MIA	RBOllie Gordon II	Rush att	15.5	Under	−119	missedactual 19	−1.00
1387	W8 · CAR @ GB	RBJosh Jacobs	Rush att	15.5	Under	−125	missedactual 21	−1.00
1389	W8 · PHI @ WAS	RBRachaad White	Rush att	12.5	Under	−123	clearedactual 11	+0.81
1391	W8 · PHI @ WAS	QBJayden Daniels	Rush att	6.5	Under	+109	clearedactual 2	+1.09
1394	W8 · CHI @ SEA	RBD'Andre Swift	Rush att	17.5	Under	−117	missedactual 27	−1.00
1397	W8 · CHI @ SEA	QBCaleb Williams	Rush att	4.5	Under	−108	clearedactual 2	+0.93
1405	W8 · ARI @ DAL	RBJeremiyah Love	Rush att	10.5	Under	−125	clearedactual 9	+0.80
1411	W8 · ATL @ TB	RBBijan Robinson	Rush att	19.5	Under	−116.5	clearedactual 19	+0.86
1413	W8 · ATL @ TB	RBBucky Irving	Rush att	17.5	Under	−128	missedactual 27	−1.00
1417	W8 · CLE @ PIT	QBDeshaun Watson	Rush att	5.5	Under	−112	clearedactual 3	+0.89
1420	W8 · CLE @ PIT	RBJaylen Warren	Rush att	14.5	Under	−112	missedactual 17	−1.00
1429	W8 · IND @ JAX	RBBhayshul Tuten	Rush att	14.5	Under	+106	missedactual 16	−1.00
1437	W8 · MIN @ DET	QBKyler Murray	Rush att	4.5	Under	−137	clearedactual 4	+0.73
1442	W8 · TEN @ CIN	RBSamaje Perine	Rush att	6.5	Under	−111	clearedactual 4	+0.90
1447	W8 · TEN @ CIN	RBChase Brown	Rush att	14.5	Under	−113	clearedactual 12	+0.89
1450	W8 · LAC @ LA	QBJustin Herbert	Rush att	4.5	Under	−117	clearedactual 4	+0.85
1460	W8 · KC @ DEN	RBJonah Coleman	Rush att	12.5	Under	−136	clearedactual 11	+0.74
1462	W8 · NE @ MIA	RBRhamondre Stevenson	Rush att	14.5	Under	−108	missedactual 19	−1.00
1463	W8 · NE @ MIA	QBDrake Maye	Rush att	5.5	Under	−114	missedactual 8	−1.00
1471	W8 · PHI @ WAS	RBRachaad White	Rush att	11.5	Under	−104	clearedactual 11	+0.96
1472	W8 · PHI @ WAS	QBJayden Daniels	Rush att	7.5	Under	−141	clearedactual 2	+0.71
1475	W8 · ARI @ DAL	RBJeremiyah Love	Rush att	9.5	Under	−112	clearedactual 9	+0.89
1479	W8 · MIN @ DET	RBJordan Mason	Rush att	11.5	Under	−121	clearedactual 8	+0.83
1481	W8 · TEN @ CIN	RBChase Brown	Rush att	15.5	Under	−118	clearedactual 12	+0.85
1486	W8 · KC @ DEN	RBJonah Coleman	Rush att	11.5	Under	−121.5	clearedactual 11	+0.82
1492	W8 · BAL @ BUF	QBLamar Jackson	Rush att	4.5	Under	−119	clearedactual 0	+0.84
1496	W8 · LV @ NYJ	RBBraelon Allen	Rush att	18.5	Under	−102	missedactual 21	−1.00
1500	W8 · ARI @ DAL	RBJeremiyah Love	Rush att	11.5	Under	−134	clearedactual 9	+0.75
1511	W8 · KC @ DEN	RBKenneth Walker III	Rush att	18.5	Under	+100	missedactual 21	−1.00
1518	W8 · CHI @ SEA	RBD'Andre Swift	Rush att	16.5	Under	−120	missedactual 27	−1.00
1523	W8 · CHI @ SEA	RBJadarian Price	Rush att	6.5	Under	−116	missedactual 10	−1.00
1528	W9 · JAX @ BAL	RBDerrick Henry	Rush att	17.5	Under	−104	clearedactual 17	+0.96
1552	W9 · CIN @ ATL	RBBijan Robinson	Rush att	19.5	Under	−117	clearedactual 19	+0.85
1554	W9 · CIN @ ATL	RBChase Brown	Rush att	14.5	Under	−107	clearedactual 9	+0.93
1558	W9 · CLE @ NO	RBQuinshon Judkins	Rush att	16.5	Under	−107	clearedactual 15	+0.93
1564	W9 · DAL @ IND	RBJavonte Williams	Rush att	17.5	Under	−122	missedactual 20	−1.00
1571	W9 · DEN @ CAR	RBChuba Hubbard	Rush att	17.5	Under	−123	clearedactual 16	+0.81
1579	W9 · DEN @ CAR	RBJonah Coleman	Rush att	13.5	Under	−129	missedactual 17	−1.00
1581	W9 · DET @ MIA	QBMalik Willis	Rush att	6.5	Under	−154	clearedactual 2	+0.65
1583	W9 · DET @ MIA	RBJahmyr Gibbs	Rush att	20.5	Under	−104	clearedactual 20	+0.96
1584	W9 · DET @ MIA	RBSione Vaki	Rush att	5.5	Under	−127	clearedactual 3	+0.79
1587	W9 · DET @ MIA	RBOllie Gordon II	Rush att	16.5	Under	−109	clearedactual 16	+0.92
1592	W9 · LA @ WAS	RBRachaad White	Rush att	11.5	Under	−117	clearedactual 7	+0.85
1598	W9 · LA @ WAS	RBBlake Corum	Rush att	11.5	Under	−133	clearedactual 11	+0.75
1599	W9 · LA @ WAS	QBJayden Daniels	Rush att	6.5	Under	−140	clearedactual 4	+0.71
1607	W9 · NYJ @ KC	RBKenneth Walker III	Rush att	19.5	Under	−101	clearedactual 18	+0.99
1612	W9 · HOU @ LAC	QBJustin Herbert	Rush att	4.5	Under	+110	clearedactual 1	+1.10
1622	W9 · HOU @ LAC	RBWoody Marks	Rush att	17.5	Under	−130.5	missedactual 18	−1.00
1636	W9 · LV @ SF	RBMike Washington Jr.	Rush att	10.5	Under	−128	clearedactual 6	+0.78
1638	W9 · ARI @ SEA	RBTyler Allgeier	Rush att	15.5	Under	−117	missedactual 17	−1.00
1642	W9 · ARI @ SEA	RBZach Charbonnet	Rush att	10.5	Under	−123	missedactual 16	−1.00
1645	W9 · ARI @ SEA	RBJadarian Price	Rush att	13.5	Under	−125	clearedactual 9	+0.80
1648	W9 · GB @ NE	RBRhamondre Stevenson	Rush att	14.5	Under	−131	clearedactual 6	+0.76
1651	W9 · GB @ NE	QBDrake Maye	Rush att	5.5	Under	−121	clearedactual 1	+0.83
1656	W9 · JAX @ BAL	RBBhayshul Tuten	Rush att	15.5	Under	−110	clearedactual 12	+0.91
1657	W9 · JAX @ BAL	RBChris Rodriguez Jr.	Rush att	8.5	Under	−137	missedactual 10	−1.00
1658	W9 · JAX @ BAL	RBBhayshul Tuten	Rush att	14.5	Under	−125	clearedactual 12	+0.80
1661	W9 · TB @ CHI	RBD'Andre Swift	Rush att	16.5	Under	−106.5	clearedactual 12	+0.94
1663	W9 · TB @ CHI	RBKenny Gainwell	Rush att	6.5	Under	−127	clearedactual 5	+0.79
1667	W9 · BUF @ MIN	QBCarson Wentz	Rush att	2.5	Under	+126	clearedactual 1	+1.26
1671	W9 · BUF @ MIN	QBJosh Allen	Rush att	7.5	Under	−136	clearedactual 6	+0.74
1678	W9 · BUF @ MIN	RBJames Cook	Rush att	18.5	Under	−120	missedactual 31	−1.00
1680	W9 · BUF @ MIN	RBJordan Mason	Rush att	11.5	Under	+103	clearedactual 6	+1.03
1686	W9 · CIN @ ATL	RBSamaje Perine	Rush att	5.5	Under	−123	missedactual 11	−1.00
1688	W9 · CIN @ ATL	RBChase Brown	Rush att	13.5	Under	−101	clearedactual 9	+0.99
1693	W9 · CLE @ NO	RBKendre Miller	Rush att	11.5	Under	−114	voidmarket pulled	—
1695	W9 · CLE @ NO	QBTyler Shough	Rush att	4.5	Under	−138	missedactual 10	−1.00
1703	W9 · DET @ MIA	QBMalik Willis	Rush att	5.5	Under	+103	clearedactual 2	+1.03
1705	W9 · LA @ WAS	RBRachaad White	Rush att	10.5	Under	−117	clearedactual 7	+0.85
1709	W9 · NYG @ PHI	RBDevin Singletary	Rush att	15.5	Under	−6not a valid price	missedactual 21	—
1716	W9 · NYJ @ KC	RBKenneth Walker III	Rush att	20.5	Under	−115	clearedactual 18	+0.87
1718	W9 · NYJ @ KC	RBBraelon Allen	Rush att	9.5	Under	−111	clearedactual 8	+0.90
1724	W9 · HOU @ LAC	RBWoody Marks	Rush att	16.5	Under	−104	missedactual 18	−1.00
1730	W9 · LV @ SF	RBMike Washington Jr.	Rush att	9.5	Under	−120	clearedactual 6	+0.83
1731	W9 · LV @ SF	RBKaelon Black	Rush att	9.5	Under	−114	missedactual 11	−1.00
1740	W9 · TB @ CHI	RBD'Andre Swift	Rush att	15.5	Under	+101	clearedactual 12	+1.01
1742	W9 · TB @ CHI	RBRoschon Johnson	Rush att	5.5	Under	−133	clearedactual 0	+0.75
1747	W9 · CLE @ NO	RBAlvin Kamara	Rush att	10.5	Under	+103	clearedactual 6	+1.03
1750	W9 · CLE @ NO	RBAudric Estimé	Rush att	8.5	Under	−135	missedactual 15	−1.00
1756	W9 · LA @ WAS	RBAustin Ekeler	Rush att	6.5	Under	−113	missedactual 8	−1.00
1759	W9 · LA @ WAS	RBBlake Corum	Rush att	10.5	Under	+103	missedactual 11	−1.00
1765	W9 · NYJ @ KC	RBEmmett Johnson	Rush att	3.5	Under	+120	missedactual 6	−1.00
1771	W9 · DET @ MIA	RBOllie Gordon II	Rush att	17.5	Under	−120	clearedactual 16	+0.83
1782	W9 · CLE @ NO	RBAudric Estimé	Rush att	9.5	Under	−129	missedactual 15	−1.00
1790	W9 · CLE @ NO	RBAlvin Kamara	Rush att	11.5	Under	−130	clearedactual 6	+0.77
1791	W9 · CLE @ NO	RBQuinshon Judkins	Rush att	15.5	Under	+103	clearedactual 15	+1.03
1792	W9 · LA @ WAS	RBAustin Ekeler	Rush att	7.5	Under	−142	missedactual 8	−1.00
1800	W10 · WAS @ NYG	RBAustin Ekeler	Rush att	7.5	Under	−112	missedactual 9	−1.00
1802	W10 · WAS @ NYG	RBDevin Singletary	Rush att	7.5	Under	+101	clearedactual 1	+1.01
1805	W10 · WAS @ NYG	RBRachaad White	Rush att	10.5	Under	−101	missedactual 11	−1.00
1810	W10 · WAS @ NYG	QBJayden Daniels	Rush att	6.5	Under	−144	missedactual 11	−1.00
1814	W10 · WAS @ NYG	RBAustin Ekeler	Rush att	8.5	Under	−112.5	missedactual 9	−1.00
1817	W10 · WAS @ NYG	QBJayden Daniels	Rush att	5.5	Under	+115	missedactual 11	−1.00
1818	W10 · WAS @ NYG	RBCam Skattebo	Rush att	15.5	Under	−125	missedactual 18	−1.00
1823	W10 · NE @ DET	RBJahmyr Gibbs	Rush att	20.5	Under	−121	not yet played	—
1825	W10 · NE @ DET	RBCorey Kiner	Rush att	13.5	Under	−125	not yet played	—
1828	W10 · BUF @ NYJ	QBJosh Allen	Rush att	6.5	Under	−114.5	not yet played	—
1830	W10 · BUF @ NYJ	RBJames Cook	Rush att	19.5	Under	−109	not yet played	—

Showing 301–400 of 427 matching of 1,963 leans · 3,787 rows in the ledgerSorted oldest first · filters narrow the list, never the total

Show all 1,963

All 1,963 leans this season and every event, with prices and timestamps (CSV) · the same rows (parquet). Each row is one lean as the ledger has it: published at a read, then graded once on the line it was published at, or voided with a reason. A lean whose line later moved, or whose game has not been played, is still here.

Rows in the ledger

3,787 rows in the ledger, and the hash chain, recomputed here over every one of them, holds.

Rows in the ledger, by week: a running count

400

1,024

1,534

2,054

2,540

3,052

3,594

3,787

W10

Rows are events: a lean is published once and graded or voided once, so it is one row or two. Week 3: 400 rows, 200 leans published · Week 4: 624 rows, 312 leans published · Week 5: 510 rows, 255 leans published · Week 6: 520 rows, 260 leans published · Week 7: 486 rows, 243 leans published · Week 8: 512 rows, 256 leans published · Week 9: 542 rows, 271 leans published · Week 10: 193 rows, 166 leans published. A running count read from one file cannot go down and cannot show a row taken out before the file was read, so it is a count here, not a proof.

The chain head

#3,7879282…8b37← 883d…0869
#3,786883d…0869← 80cf…6987
#3,78580cf…6987← dc2b…eb9b
#3,784dc2b…eb9b← d123…2020

Recomputed here: every row’s hash is the SHA-256 of its 25 cells and the previous row’s hash, so editing or removing a row breaks every hash after it. Rows cut from the end leave a chain that still holds; only a head recorded before the cut catches that. The head is 9282c7691ef6984e073ad129647881247a97f8a2c9069e4ae7f954e50b9f8b37 - keep it, and check it against the next one.

Week 4’s index publishes row #1,024’s hash as 85a9…1844: this file's row #1,024 carries the same.
Week 5’s index publishes row #1,534’s hash as c58b…5471: this file's row #1,534 carries the same.
Week 6’s index publishes row #2,054’s hash as f713…37c3: this file's row #2,054 carries the same.
Week 7’s index publishes row #2,540’s hash as 95c9…1855: this file's row #2,540 carries the same.
Week 8’s index publishes row #3,052’s hash as 91bf…e079: this file's row #3,052 carries the same.
Week 9’s index publishes row #3,594’s hash as f526…96df: this file's row #3,594 carries the same.
Week 10’s index publishes row #3,787’s hash as 9282…8b37: this file's row #3,787 carries the same.

Pushes and voids

0 pushes and 53 voids so far. Each stays on the record; neither counts toward the hit rate.

W3 · CAR @ CLEvoid

WRXavier Legette

Rec 1.5 · over

Void: inactive

W3 · NYJ @ DETvoid

WRAdonai Mitchell

Rec 3.5 · under

Void: inactive

W3 · BAL @ DALvoid

WRChris Moore

Rec 1.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W3 · BAL @ DALvoid

WRLaJohntay Wester

Rec 2.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W3 · HOU @ INDvoid

WRDarius Slayton

Rec 1.5 · over

Void: inactive

W3 · TEN @ NYGvoid

RBDevin Singletary

Rec 1.5 · under

Void: inactive

W4 · IND @ WASvoid

WRKeenan Allen

Rec 3.5 · over

Void: market pulled

W4 · IND @ WASvoid

WRStefon Diggs

Rec 4.5 · over

Void: market pulled

W4 · IND @ WASvoid

WRTerry McLaurin

Rec 4.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W4 · IND @ WASvoid

WRAntonio Williams

Rec 1.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W4 · LA @ PHIvoid

WRDeVonta Smith

Rec 5.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W4 · KC @ LVvoid

RBMike Washington Jr.

Rush att 4.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W4 · LAC @ SEAvoid

RBJadarian Price

Rec 1.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W4 · DET @ CARvoid

WRJalen Coker

Rec 4.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W4 · IND @ WASvoid

WRDarius Slayton

Rec 1.5 · over

Void: market pulled

W4 · ATL @ NOvoid

TENoah Fant

Rec 1.5 · over

Void: market pulled

W5 · LV @ NEvoid

RBAshton Jeanty

Rec 3.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W5 · LV @ NEvoid

RBAshton Jeanty

Rush att 16.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W5 · CHI @ GBvoid

RBKyle Monangai

Rush att 11.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W5 · DET @ ARIvoid

WRMarvin Harrison Jr.

Rec 2.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W5 · BUF @ LAvoid

WRJosh Palmer

Rec 1.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W5 · LV @ NEvoid

TEIan Thomas

Rec 0.5 · over

Void: market pulled

W5 · MIN @ NOvoid

WRJordan Addison

Rec 3.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W5 · DEN @ LACvoid

WRLadd McConkey

Rec 3.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W6 · TEN @ INDvoid

RBTyjae Spears

Rec 2.5 · over

Void: market pulled

W6 · TEN @ INDvoid

TETyler Warren

Rec 5.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W6 · BUF @ LVvoid

WRDJ Moore

Rec 3.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W6 · BAL @ CLEvoid

RBQuinshon Judkins

Rec 2.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W7 · LA @ LVvoid

TETyler Higbee

Rec 4.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W7 · LA @ LVvoid

WRPuka Nacua

Rec 8.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W7 · LA @ LVvoid

WRJordan Whittington

Rec 0.5 · over

Void: market pulled

W7 · LA @ LVvoid

WRKonata Mumpfield

Rec 1.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W7 · CLE @ TENvoid

WRCalvin Ridley

Rec 0.5 · over

Void: market pulled

W7 · CLE @ TENvoid

RBTyjae Spears

Rec 2.5 · over

Void: market pulled

W7 · SF @ ATLvoid

WROlamide Zaccheaus

Rec 1.5 · over

Void: market pulled

W7 · TB @ CARvoid

RBAJ Dillon

Rush att 3.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W8 · CAR @ GBvoid

TEJonnu Smith

Rec 0.5 · over

Void: market pulled

W8 · ATL @ TBvoid

WREmeka Egbuka

Rec 4.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W8 · IND @ JAXvoid

WRJakobi Meyers

Rec 3.5 · over

Void: market pulled

W8 · TEN @ CINvoid

WRCarnell Tate

Rec 4.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W8 · KC @ DENvoid

RBRJ Harvey

Rec 3.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W8 · CLE @ PITvoid

TEBlake Whiteheart

Rec 0.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W8 · IND @ JAXvoid

WRAshton Dulin

Rec 0.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W9 · LA @ WASvoid

WRTreylon Burks

Rec 2.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W9 · LV @ SFvoid

WRChristian Kirk

Rec 1.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W9 · BUF @ MINvoid

WRJauan Jennings

Rec 0.5 · over

Void: market pulled

W9 · BUF @ MINvoid

WRSkyler Bell

Rec 0.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W9 · CLE @ NOvoid

RBKendre Miller

Rec 1.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W9 · CLE @ NOvoid

RBKendre Miller

Rush att 11.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W9 · DAL @ INDvoid

WRGeorge Pickens

Rec 3.5 · over

Void: market pulled

W9 · NYJ @ KCvoid

WRTim Patrick

Rec 1.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W9 · DAL @ INDvoid

WRGeorge Pickens

Rec 4.5 · over

Void: market pulled

W9 · HOU @ LACvoid

WRLadd McConkey

Rec 4.5 · under

Void: inactive

By market

Receptions carry most of the leans: 1,440 of 1,963.

Market	Leans	Cleared · missed	Hit rate · 95%	Against 52.4%
Receptions	1,440	696–595	53.9% 51.2–56.6	contains 52.4%
Rush attempts	523	261–219	54.4% 49.9–58.8	contains 52.4%

By market and lean size

5 of 5 intervals contain 52.4%, the break-even at −110; 0 sit wholly under it; 0 sit wholly over it. 1 cell has no interval: fewer than 30 leans that cleared or missed.

Market	Gap	n	Cleared	95%
Receptions	4–6 pp	177	53%	45%–60%
Receptions	6–8 pp	122	45%	37%–54%
Receptions	8+ pp	992	55%	52%–58%
Rush attempts	4–6 pp	57	44%	32%–57%
Rush attempts	6–8 pp	29	—	pending
Rush attempts	8+ pp	394	56%	51%–61%

The size is the producer’s own band on each lean: the gap between the model’s probability and the market’s, in probability points, when the lean was published. A rate is shown where a market, or a market and size, has at least 30 leans that cleared or missed; a push is neither and is counted apart. The interval is Wilson’s, 95%, and it treats every lean as independent. Leans in one game are not, so the real uncertainty is wider than the interval drawn.

How the model scores against the market

Walk-forward Brier(model) - Brier(close), 2025

0.0195

95% 0.0144 to 0.0253 · n 6,031 outcomes

The model scored worse than the de-vigged sportsbook close, over 284 games (the board index’s copy, which agrees with the registry).

research/hypotheses.json · hypotheses[id=R15].estimate

Brier(model) - Brier(Kalshi mid), week 1

0.0142

95% 0.0007 to 0.0263 · n 925 predictions · 14 games

The model scored worse than the Kalshi mid.

research/calibration.json · brier.model_minus_market.estimate

Restatement note, from the metric registry

R10 is the 2026-09-17 restatement on n=706 (229 books one-sided at entry); research/calibration.json now scores n=935 because the Kalshi candle backfill supplies a two-sided entry quote for every prediction. Unresolved: which entry quote is correct (a-36). (research/hypotheses.json · hypotheses[id=R10].estimate, not printed here)

What a lean is

The side the model’s probability sits on, when it differs from the market’s de-vigged price by 4 points or more at the read that publishes it. In the board’s own words: over at gap >= +T, under at gap <= -T.

What it is not

A recommendation, or a claim that the model knows something the market does not. It is published so it can be graded, not because disagreeing has paid. Walk-forward, the model scored worse than the de-vigged sportsbook close (95% interval for the Brier difference 0.0144 to 0.0253).

What would change the verdict

A season whose walk-forward interval for Brier(model) − Brier(close) lies wholly under zero. On this page, a record whose 95% interval lies wholly over the −110 break-even. Each is where an interval sits, computed from the files, so either sentence above would change on its own.

Not a sportsbook · no wagers accepted · nothing here is advice · board/nfl/ledger.csv and board/nfl/ledger.parquet: 3,787 rows each, identical row for row · board indexes for week 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 of 2026 · model baseline-usage-0.4+03571d4710af