WR · BUF · 2021–2026
Josh Palmer
This period's fantasy distribution
2026 Week 2 · vs DET · as of Tue, Sep 15, 11:41 PM ET
| Clears | 5+ pts | 10+ pts | 15+ pts | 20+ pts | 25+ pts | 30+ pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability | 33% | 11% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
What it is built from
- MARKET Rec 1.5: 37% · 2.5: 11% · 3.5: 6% · 4.5: 10%
- DERIVED Rec Yds — receptions × yards per catch by position
- MARKET Car — no rush-attempts ladder listed; contributes 0
- DERIVED Rush Yds — attempts × yards per carry by position
- ANCHORED TD — player TD rate scaled by the game total and spread
Source: kalshi · research/implied.py arm A: mid of each rung, no de-vig (exchange); isotonic survival fit; Gaussian copula receptions↔receiving yards; Monte Carlo · 4,000 simulations · game total 53.5, spread −4.5 (nflverse games)
The method was validated on sportsbook ladders, 2023-25 (q90 coverage 0.101 against 0.100). The Kalshi-ladder arm used here has not been independently validated.
Usage trend
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Game log
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Fantasy history
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Season and career
| Season | G | Avg snap % | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Att | Cmp | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Fum Lost | 2-Pt | Ret TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | 31% | 2 | 1 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.4 |
| 2025 | 12 | 48% | 37 | 22 | 303 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.4 |
| 2024 | 15 | 66% | 65 | 39 | 584 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7.2 |
| 2023 | 10 | 75% | 61 | 38 | 581 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10.7 |
| 2022 | 16 | 80% | 107 | 72 | 769 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10.6 |
| 2022 post | 1 | 97% | 6 | 2 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.1 |
| 2021 | 15 | 42% | 49 | 33 | 353 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.2 |
| Career (REG) | 69 | 62% | 321 | 205 | 2,624 | 11 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7.8 |
generated Tue, Sep 15, 11:41 PM ET