Lines · 2026 · Week 10 · read Fri 7:24 PM ET

299 lines posted.
The model leans on 156.

Every posted line this week, the market's price, the Second Opinion beside it, and what leans that size have done before. Nothing leaves the board when it misses.

Leans published, week 10

156

27 graded · 129 open · 0 void

Leans cleared, this read

44%

12 of 27 · 95% 28%–63%

Break-even at −110

52.4%

what a lean at that price needs

Week 9, settled

Week 10's market is not broad yet, so this page leads with week 9, as the landing does. What the board said before the games, and what happened. Nothing is removed when it missed.

Leans published, week 9

153 cleared · 108 missed

58.6% of 261 graded cleared, 95% 53%–64%. That interval sits wholly over break-even at −110, 52.4%. 10 leans were void and stay on the ledger. Every lean, graded, on Receipts.

Streaks into week 9

50 carried · 49 broke

101 lines went into week 9 on a streak one of the four rules fired on. 50.5% of the 99 graded carried it, 95% 41%–60%. 2 void. Who carried and who broke.

What a lean is

A gap of 4 points or more between the model and the market.

First opinionThe market’s price

Second OpinionThe model’s

It is published so it can be graded, not because disagreeing has paid. Every lean stays on the record, cleared or missed.

From the board index · board/nfl/2026/wk10/index.json

Player props

45 of 299 lines shown; 156 carry a lean, at a gap of 4 points or more. Each row sets the market’s chance of the over beside the Second Opinion’s.

Lean

All Leans No lean

Market

All Rec yds Rec Rush att

Hide settled

Game and order

124 of the 299 lines are receiving yards, where the model gives no price this week: those rows show the market alone. Every row is complete as shown; nothing on this board is still loading.

Rows 1–40 of 45 · page 1 of 2

Settled1 game, graded where the line stood at its last read before kickoff · 10 lines

RBAustin Ekeler Rush att 7.5 · WAS @ NYG · WASopened at 7.5line moved after the lean

Market 50.2%Second Opinion 17.6%

under−32.6Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean missed

4 of 10 over

over cleared9

RBAustin Ekeler Rush att 8.5 · WAS @ NYG · WASopened at 7.5

Market 52.2%Second Opinion 13.7%

under−38.5Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean missed

1 of 10 over

over cleared9

RBCam Skattebo Rush att 15.5 · WAS @ NYG · NYGopened at 12.5line moved after the lean

Market 52.6%Second Opinion 37.2%

under−15.5Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean missed

6 of 10 over

over cleared18

RBCam Skattebo Rush att 16.5 · WAS @ NYG · NYGopened at 12.5

Market 52.1%Second Opinion 31.8%

under−20.3Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean missed

5 of 10 over

over cleared18

RBDevin Singletary Rush att 6.5 · WAS @ NYG · NYGopened at 7.5line moved after the lean

Market 51.5%Second Opinion 40.4%

under−11.1Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean cleared

5 of 10 over

over missed1

RBDevin Singletary Rush att 7.5 · WAS @ NYG · NYGopened at 7.5line moved after the lean

Market 45.6%Second Opinion 33.7%

under−11.9Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean cleared

5 of 10 over

over missed1

QBJ.J. McCarthy Rush att 3.5 · WAS @ NYG · NYG

Market 55.7% −0.4 since openSecond Opinion 39.6%

under−16.1Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean missed

3 of 10 over

over cleared6

QBJayden Daniels Rush att 5.5 · WAS @ NYG · WASopened at 6.5line moved after the lean

Market 56.1%Second Opinion 47.2%

under−8.8Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean missed

5 of 10 over

over cleared11

QBJayden Daniels Rush att 6.5 · WAS @ NYG · WASopened at 6.5

Market 46.1%Second Opinion 37.5%

under−8.6Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean missed

5 of 10 over

over cleared11

RBRachaad White Rush att 10.5 · WAS @ NYG · WAS

Market 51.0% −1.6 since openSecond Opinion 25.5%

under−25.5Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean missed

1 of 10 over

over cleared11

Sun, Nov 15 · 9:30 AM ET1 game · 3 lines

RBCorey Kiner Rush att 13.5 · NE @ DET · NE

Market 47.8%Second Opinion 5.5%

under−42.3Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602

0 of 10 over

upcoming

QBDrake Maye Rush att 4.5 · NE @ DET · NE

Market 48.2%Second Opinion 52.6%

over+4.3Leans this size 47% [41%–52%] · n 315

5 of 10 over

upcoming

RBJahmyr Gibbs Rush att 20.5 · NE @ DET · DET

Market 48.4%Second Opinion 23.4%

under−25.1Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602

4 of 10 over

upcoming

Sun, Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET7 games · 16 lines

RBBreece Hall Rush att 13.5 · BUF @ NYJ · NYJ

Market 48.4%Second Opinion 59.4%

over+10.9Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602

8 of 10 over

upcoming

RBJames Cook Rush att 19.5 · BUF @ NYJ · BUF

Market 51.0%Second Opinion 38.4%

under−12.7Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602

7 of 10 over

upcoming

QBJosh Allen Rush att 6.5 · BUF @ NYJ · BUF

Market 49.9%Second Opinion 44.1%

under−5.8Leans this size 47% [41%–52%] · n 315

6 of 10 over

upcoming

QBBryce Young Rush att 2.5 · CAR @ NO · CAR

Market 47.8%Second Opinion 40.6%

under−7.2Leans this size 53% [47%–58%] · n 331

3 of 10 over

upcoming

RBChuba Hubbard Rush att 17.5 · CAR @ NO · CAR

Market 50.3%Second Opinion 19.7%

under−30.6Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602

4 of 10 over

upcoming

QBTyler Shough Rush att 4.5 · CAR @ NO · NO

Market 53.0%Second Opinion 35.3%

under−17.7Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602

3 of 10 over

upcoming

QBDeshaun Watson Rush att 6.5 · HOU @ CLE · CLE

Market 51.3%Second Opinion 27.8%

under−23.5Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602

4 of 10 over

upcoming

RBQuinshon Judkins Rush att 13.5 · HOU @ CLE · CLE

Market 47.1%Second Opinion 56.9%

over+9.8Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602

5 of 10 over

upcoming

RBBhayshul Tuten Rush att 15.5 · JAX @ TEN · JAX

Market 46.8%Second Opinion 13.6%

under−33.2Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602

3 of 10 over

upcoming

RBTony Pollard Rush att 15.5 · JAX @ TEN · TEN

Market 46.9%Second Opinion 40.0%

under−6.9Leans this size 53% [47%–58%] · n 331

6 of 10 over

upcoming

RBBijan Robinson Rush att 20.5 · KC @ ATL · ATL

Market 47.0%Second Opinion 24.6%

under−22.3Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602

2 of 10 over

upcoming

RBKenneth Walker III Rush att 18.5 · KC @ ATL · KC

Market 51.8%Second Opinion 24.5%

under−27.3Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602

5 of 10 over

upcoming

RBJonathan Taylor Rush att 14.5 · MIA @ IND · IND

Market 53.7%Second Opinion 69.1%

over+15.4Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602

7 of 10 over

upcoming

RBOllie Gordon II Rush att 17.5 · MIA @ IND · MIA

Market 52.2%Second Opinion 9.3%

under−42.9Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602

3 of 10 over

upcoming

RBAaron Jones Rush att 8.5 · MIN @ GB · MIN

Market 51.0%Second Opinion 71.2%

over+20.1Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602

7 of 10 over

upcoming

RBJordan Mason Rush att 11.5 · MIN @ GB · MIN

Market 48.8%Second Opinion 31.9%

under−16.9Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602

3 of 10 over

upcoming

Sun, Nov 15 · 4:05 PM ET2 games · 8 lines

RBBlake Corum Rush att 11.5 · LA @ ARI · LA

Market 51.5%Second Opinion 25.8%

under−25.8Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602

3 of 10 over

upcoming

QBCarson BeckRush att 3.5 · LA @ ARI · ARI

Market 48.8%Second Opinion 15.1%

under−33.7Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602

no graded game

upcoming

RBKyren Williams Rush att 15.5 · LA @ ARI · LA

Market 49.8%Second Opinion 40.7%

under−9.1Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602

4 of 10 over

upcoming

RBTyler Allgeier Rush att 11.5 · LA @ ARI · ARI

Market 50.4%Second Opinion 25.8%

under−24.7Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602

3 of 10 over

upcoming

RBAshton Jeanty Rush att 10.5 · SEA @ LV · LV

Market 50.2%Second Opinion 69.3%

over+19.1Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602

5 of 10 over

upcoming

RBJadarian Price Rush att 10.5 · SEA @ LV · SEA

Market 51.9%Second Opinion 14.0%

under−37.9Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602

1 of 5 over

upcoming

RBMike Washington Jr.Rush att 8.5 · SEA @ LV · LV

Market 49.4%Second Opinion 37.2%

under−12.1Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602

3 of 9 over

upcoming

RBZach Charbonnet Rush att 14.5 · SEA @ LV · SEA

Market 47.8%Second Opinion 21.5%

under−26.3Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602

3 of 10 over

upcoming

Sun, Nov 15 · 4:25 PM ET1 game · 5 lines · 3 of them on this page

QBBrock Purdy Rush att 4.5 · SF @ DAL · SF

Market 42.2%Second Opinion 36.5%

under−5.7Leans this size 47% [41%–52%] · n 315

6 of 10 over

upcoming

RBChristian McCaffrey Rush att 14.5 · SF @ DAL · SF

Market 48.0%Second Opinion 55.8%

over+7.8Leans this size 53% [47%–58%] · n 331

5 of 10 over

upcoming

QBDak Prescott Rush att 2.5 · SF @ DAL · DAL

Market 51.5%Second Opinion 44.9%

under−6.5Leans this size 53% [47%–58%] · n 331

3 of 10 over

upcoming

156 leans published for week 10: 27 graded, 129 upcoming, 0 live, 0 void. On this read, 12 cleared, 15 missed.

Receipts: every lean the model has published this season, graded, none removed →

Parlay builder: what a book charges for several of these lines on one ticket →

Gap after cost: every priced outcome beside our number, sorted by the difference with the cost taken off →

What each side rested on: for every graded lean, the one input of the model nearest to changing its side →

Between two lines: the chance a count lands between two rungs of an exchange ladder, and what that costs to buy →

How the board is read

Market P(over): median of each benchmark book’s de-vigged price at the main line · Second Opinion: baseline-usage-0.4+03571d4710af

Line: the main line AT THIS READ: the listed threshold whose median de-vigged over probability across DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM is closest to 0.5. is_main is a property of the read, not of the market; it is false only on a row kept for a published lean whose line the main line moved off.
Gap: model minus market, probability points, signed
Lean: over at gap >= +T, under at gap <= -T
Longshot: market P(over) outside [0.15, 0.85]; multiplicative de-vig is biased there - to revisit with Shin or power de-vig once settled data exists
Void: market_pulled | inactive | no_snap - a voided lean stays on the ledger

Threshold log (appended, never edited, so every lean is graded against the threshold it was published under): 4 points from 2026-09-01 (decided 2026-09-24 (audit 5.3, unit a-26) before the first board; effective from season start because no board read predates it).

Last read Fri 7:24 PM ET · week 10Break-even at −110 is 52.4%Nothing leaves the board when it misses

Not a sportsbook · no wagers accepted · nothing here is advice · read Fri 7:24 PM ET · 85 reads this week · model baseline-usage-0.4+03571d4710af · board/nfl/2026/wk10

299 lines posted.The model leans on 156.

153 cleared · 108 missed

50 carried · 49 broke

A gap of 4 points or more between the model and the market.

299 lines posted.
The model leans on 156.