calibrated SPORTS
NFLLines

Lines · 2026 · Week 10 · read Fri 8:24 PM ET

323 lines posted.
The model leans on 166.

Every posted line this week, the market's price, the Second Opinion beside it, and what leans that size have done before. Nothing leaves the board when it misses.

Leans published, week 10
166
27 graded · 139 open · 0 void
Leans cleared, this read
44%
12 of 27 · 95% 28%–63%
Break-even at −110
52.4%
what a lean at that price needs

Week 9, settled

Week 10's market is not broad yet, so this page leads with week 9, as the landing does. What the board said before the games, and what happened. Nothing is removed when it missed.

Leans published, week 9

153 cleared · 108 missed

58.6% of 261 graded cleared, 95% 53%–64%. That interval sits wholly over break-even at −110, 52.4%. 10 leans were void and stay on the ledger. Every lean, graded, on Receipts.

Streaks into week 9

50 carried · 49 broke

101 lines went into week 9 on a streak one of the four rules fired on. 50.5% of the 99 graded carried it, 95% 41%–60%. 2 void. Who carried and who broke.

What a lean is

A gap of 4 points or more between the model and the market.

First opinionThe market’s price
Second OpinionThe model’s

It is published so it can be graded, not because disagreeing has paid. Every lean stays on the record, cleared or missed.

From the board index · board/nfl/2026/wk10/index.json

Player props

157 of 323 lines shown; 166 carry a lean, at a gap of 4 points or more. Each row sets the market’s chance of the over beside the Second Opinion’s.

Lean
AllLeansNo lean
Market
AllRec ydsRecRush att
Hide settled
Game and order

134 of the 323 lines are receiving yards, where the model gives no price this week: those rows show the market alone. Every row is complete as shown; nothing on this board is still loading.

Rows 81–120 of 157 · page 3 of 4

Sun, Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET7 games · 75 lines · continued; 18 of them on this page
WRChris BellRec yds 17.5 · MIA @ IND · MIA

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.
4 of 8 over
upcoming

Chance to clear each threshold

Last 8 games: the share at or above each threshold. Ten games at most: a small sample, drawn as one.

0%50%100%06717.5

Market 50.0%No Second Opinion for this market— last ten

The read prices the main line only; the books also listed 16.5, without a price in this file.

This line, game by game

Last 8 against today’s 17.5, not the line posted that week · cleared 4 of 8.

2026_01_MIA_LV: 25, cleared2026_02_MIA_SF: 0, missed2026_03_KC_MIA: 67, cleared2026_04_MIA_MIN: 0, missed2026_05_CIN_MIA: 0, missed2026_07_MIA_NYJ: 25, cleared2026_08_NE_MIA: 31, cleared2026_09_DET_MIA: 0, missedoldestlatest

Cleared Missed– not recorded

this season 4 of 8 · career 4 of 8 against 17.5.

What leans this size have done

The model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone. No gap, and no lean.

Line since open

Opened at 17.5, unchanged.

One read of this line so far (Thu, Nov 12, 1:00 PM ET, 50.0%): no path yet.

Each book at 17.5, as it last showed it. Market P(over) is the median of the de-vigged prices across 1 book.
BookOverUnderP(over)Hold
betmgm−115−11550.0%7.0%

MIA @ IND · kickoff Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET

Sun, Nov 15 · 4:05 PM ET2 games · 23 lines · 22 of them on this page

166 leans published for week 10: 27 graded, 139 upcoming, 0 live, 0 void. On this read, 12 cleared, 15 missed.

Receipts: every lean the model has published this season, graded, none removed →

Parlay builder: what a book charges for several of these lines on one ticket →

Gap after cost: every priced outcome beside our number, sorted by the difference with the cost taken off →

What each side rested on: for every graded lean, the one input of the model nearest to changing its side →

Between two lines: the chance a count lands between two rungs of an exchange ladder, and what that costs to buy →

How the board is read

Market P(over): median of each benchmark book’s de-vigged price at the main line · Second Opinion: baseline-usage-0.4+03571d4710af

Line
the main line AT THIS READ: the listed threshold whose median de-vigged over probability across DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM is closest to 0.5. is_main is a property of the read, not of the market; it is false only on a row kept for a published lean whose line the main line moved off.
Gap
model minus market, probability points, signed
Lean
over at gap >= +T, under at gap <= -T
Longshot
market P(over) outside [0.15, 0.85]; multiplicative de-vig is biased there - to revisit with Shin or power de-vig once settled data exists
Void
market_pulled | inactive | no_snap - a voided lean stays on the ledger

Threshold log (appended, never edited, so every lean is graded against the threshold it was published under): 4 points from 2026-09-01 (decided 2026-09-24 (audit 5.3, unit a-26) before the first board; effective from season start because no board read predates it).

Last read Fri 8:24 PM ET · week 10Break-even at −110 is 52.4%Nothing leaves the board when it misses

Not a sportsbook · no wagers accepted · nothing here is advice · read Fri 8:24 PM ET · 86 reads this week · model baseline-usage-0.4+03571d4710af · board/nfl/2026/wk10