calibratedSPORTS

WK 01 · NFL

Where the model disagreed, and who was right

Published after settlement. Every disagreement of two probability points or more, scored against the closing line at the sharpest venue we could reach.

DISAGREEMENTS
week 1 not settled
MODEL AHEAD
awaiting settlement
MEAN CLV
awaiting settlement

Not yet published

935 predictions are logged across 14 games, every as-of timestamp before its own kickoff. Model-versus-market disagreements publish only after settlement, so this note fills in on Monday and not before.