SETTLEDECE 0.0043
Is the closing price the probability it claims to be?
43,209 settled player props against the de-vigged close. The curve tracks the diagonal and the over side sits below it everywhere.
Studies
Findings, with the script attached.
Anything quoted as a finding has a committed script behind it. A study that cannot be re-run is a number someone remembers.
OPEN-2.65pp in 2025
Where the over-bias comes from
It appears in 2024 and doubles by 2025, and 2023 shows nothing. Either the books changed or the book mix did — five of 2023's ten have since exited.