Log
Decisions logged
Append-only. A decision that gets reversed stays here with the reversal under it, because why something was tried is worth as much as how it turned out.
Retention keys on ingestion time
quotes.ts is when a price existed; a 14-day window on it deleted an 806-credit backfill on arrival. Every time-based policy now keys on ingest_ts, stamped by the writer.
The 13-18pp edge was positive by construction
gross_edge = |model - market| because the side is chosen after the fact. A noise model scores over 10pp on it. The ledger now records signed edge and reports the unselected population alongside.
Shrinkage compression is correct, not a bug
Model means sit 5-9% below each player's own prior mean and within 1% of the held-out actual. The player's own mean is the optimistic number.
Polling tiers key on kickoff, not close_ts
Kalshi closes a prop at game end and Polymarket at kickoff, so one field meant two instants and mid-game Kalshi ran at 60s while the same claim ran at 10s.