Lines · 2026 · Week 10 · read Fri 8:24 PM ET

323 lines posted.
The model leans on 166.

Every posted line this week, the market's price, the Second Opinion beside it, and what leans that size have done before. Nothing leaves the board when it misses.

Leans published, week 10

166

27 graded · 139 open · 0 void

Leans cleared, this read

44%

12 of 27 · 95% 28%–63%

Break-even at −110

52.4%

what a lean at that price needs

Week 9, settled

Week 10's market is not broad yet, so this page leads with week 9, as the landing does. What the board said before the games, and what happened. Nothing is removed when it missed.

Leans published, week 9

153 cleared · 108 missed

58.6% of 261 graded cleared, 95% 53%–64%. That interval sits wholly over break-even at −110, 52.4%. 10 leans were void and stay on the ledger. Every lean, graded, on Receipts.

Streaks into week 9

50 carried · 49 broke

101 lines went into week 9 on a streak one of the four rules fired on. 50.5% of the 99 graded carried it, 95% 41%–60%. 2 void. Who carried and who broke.

What a lean is

A gap of 4 points or more between the model and the market.

First opinionThe market’s price

Second OpinionThe model’s

It is published so it can be graded, not because disagreeing has paid. Every lean stays on the record, cleared or missed.

From the board index · board/nfl/2026/wk10/index.json

Player props

281 of 323 lines shown; 166 carry a lean, at a gap of 4 points or more. Each row sets the market’s chance of the over beside the Second Opinion’s.

Lean

All Leans No lean

Market

All Rec yds Rec Rush att

Hide settled

Game and order

134 of the 323 lines are receiving yards, where the model gives no price this week: those rows show the market alone. Every row is complete as shown; nothing on this board is still loading.

Rows 201–240 of 281 · page 6 of 8

Sun, Nov 15 · 4:05 PM ET2 games · 52 lines · continued; 12 of them on this page

WRJalen Nailor Rec yds 12.5 · SEA @ LV · LV

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

5 of 10 over

upcoming

WRJalen Nailor Rec 1.5 · SEA @ LV · LV

Market 44.9%Second Opinion 57.4%

over+12.5Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862

5 of 10 over

upcoming

WRJaxon Smith-Njigba Rec yds 89.5 · SEA @ LV · SEA

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

7 of 10 over

upcoming

WRJaxon Smith-Njigba Rec 7.5 · SEA @ LV · SEA

Market 45.4%Second Opinion 38.0%

under−7.4Leans this size 48% [45%–51%] · n 1,059

5 of 10 over

upcoming

TEMichael Mayer Rec yds 21.5 · SEA @ LV · LV

Market 50.2%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

9 of 10 over

upcoming

TEMichael Mayer Rec 2.5 · SEA @ LV · LV

Market 54.6%Second Opinion 45.6%

under−9.0Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862

9 of 10 over

upcoming

RBMike Washington Jr.Rush att 8.5 · SEA @ LV · LV

Market 49.4%Second Opinion 37.2%

under−12.1Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602

3 of 9 over

upcoming

Chance to clear each threshold

Last 9 games: the share at or above each threshold. Ten games at most: a small sample, drawn as one.

Market 49.4% Second Opinion 37.2%— last ten

The read prices the main line only.

This line, game by game

Last 9 against today’s 8.5, not the line posted that week · cleared 3 of 9.

Cleared Missed– not recorded

this season 3 of 9 · career 3 of 9 against 8.5.

What leans this size have done

Gaps of 8+ points, walk-forward: each lean made with constants fitted only on earlier seasons.

Leans: 3,602; over 841 games
Cleared: 55%; 95% 53%–56%
Return at the price: +3%; 95% −0% to +7%

At this lean’s price (−116) a bet needs 53.7% to break even. The cleared interval spans it.

wilson_95 · game_block_bootstrap_2000 · research/board_bands.py

Line since open

Opened at 8.5, unchanged.

One read of this line so far (Thu, Nov 12, 4:05 PM ET, 49.4%): no path yet.

Each book at 8.5, as it last showed it. Market P(over) is the median of the de-vigged prices across 1 book.
Book	Over	Under	P(over)	Hold
draftkings	−110	−116	49.4%	6.1%

SEA @ LV · kickoff Sun, Nov 15, 4:05 PM ET

WRTre Tucker Rec yds 26.5 · SEA @ LV · LV

Market 49.5%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

9 of 10 over

upcoming

WRTre Tucker Rec 2.5 · SEA @ LV · LV

Market 45.1%Second Opinion 72.8%

over+27.6Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862

7 of 10 over

upcoming

RBZach Charbonnet Rec yds 9.5 · SEA @ LV · SEA

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

5 of 10 over

upcoming

RBZach Charbonnet Rec 1.5 · SEA @ LV · SEA

Market 57.7%Second Opinion 34.4%

under−23.3Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862

6 of 10 over

upcoming

RBZach Charbonnet Rush att 14.5 · SEA @ LV · SEA

Market 47.8%Second Opinion 21.5%

under−26.3Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602

3 of 10 over

upcoming

Sun, Nov 15 · 4:25 PM ET1 game · 17 lines

QBBrock Purdy Rush att 4.5 · SF @ DAL · SF

Market 42.2%Second Opinion 36.5%

under−5.7Leans this size 47% [41%–52%] · n 315

6 of 10 over

upcoming

WRCeeDee Lamb Rec yds 89.5 · SF @ DAL · DAL

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

4 of 10 over

upcoming

WRCeeDee Lamb Rec 7.5 · SF @ DAL · DAL

Market 46.2%Second Opinion 30.6%

under−15.6Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862

4 of 10 over

upcoming

RBChristian McCaffrey Rec yds 31.5 · SF @ DAL · SF

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

6 of 10 over

upcoming

RBChristian McCaffrey Rec 4.5 · SF @ DAL · SF

Market 46.1%Second Opinion 53.5%

over+7.4Leans this size 48% [45%–51%] · n 1,059

4 of 10 over

upcoming

RBChristian McCaffrey Rush att 14.5 · SF @ DAL · SF

Market 48.0%Second Opinion 55.8%

over+7.8Leans this size 53% [47%–58%] · n 331

5 of 10 over

upcoming

QBDak Prescott Rush att 2.5 · SF @ DAL · DAL

Market 51.5%Second Opinion 44.9%

under−6.5Leans this size 53% [47%–58%] · n 331

3 of 10 over

upcoming

WRDeebo Samuel Rec yds 36.5 · SF @ DAL · SF

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

4 of 10 over

upcoming

WRDeebo Samuel Rec 3.5 · SF @ DAL · SF

Market 45.3%Second Opinion 59.6%

over+14.3Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862

3 of 10 over

upcoming

WRDemarcus Robinson Rec yds 28.5 · SF @ DAL · SF

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

4 of 10 over

upcoming

WRDemarcus Robinson Rec 2.5 · SF @ DAL · SF

Market 42.5%Second Opinion 24.1%

under−18.4Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862

3 of 10 over

upcoming

TEGeorge Kittle Rec yds 62.5 · SF @ DAL · SF

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

6 of 10 over

upcoming

TEGeorge Kittle Rec 5.5 · SF @ DAL · SF

Market 43.9%Second Opinion 34.2%

under−9.6Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862

3 of 10 over

upcoming

RBJavonte Williams Rec yds 14.5 · SF @ DAL · DAL

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

5 of 10 over

upcoming

RBJavonte Williams Rec 2.5 · SF @ DAL · DAL

Market 54.5%Second Opinion 40.7%

under−13.7Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862

4 of 10 over

upcoming

RBJavonte Williams Rush att 16.5 · SF @ DAL · DAL

Market 53.0%Second Opinion 41.8%

under−11.2Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602

5 of 10 over

upcoming

RBKaelon Black Rush att 7.5 · SF @ DAL · SF

Market 54.3%Second Opinion 41.2%

under−13.1Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602

4 of 8 over

upcoming

Sun, Nov 15 · 8:20 PM ET1 game · 28 lines · 11 of them on this page

RBChase Brown Rec yds 23.5 · PIT @ CIN · CIN

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

3 of 10 over

upcoming

RBChase Brown Rec 4.5 · PIT @ CIN · CIN

Market 45.4%Second Opinion 37.1%

under−8.3Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862

3 of 10 over

upcoming

RBChase Brown Rush att 11.5 · PIT @ CIN · CIN

Market 49.5%Second Opinion 62.1%

over+12.6Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602

7 of 10 over

upcoming

TEDarnell Washington Rec yds 28.5 · PIT @ CIN · PIT

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

3 of 10 over

upcoming

TEDarnell Washington Rec 2.5 · PIT @ CIN · PIT

Market 49.3%Second Opinion 35.9%

under−13.4Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862

5 of 10 over

upcoming

WRDK Metcalf Rec yds 49.5 · PIT @ CIN · PIT

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

4 of 10 over

upcoming

WRDK Metcalf Rec 4.5 · PIT @ CIN · PIT

Market 44.3%Second Opinion 43.5%

no lean−0.8no lean history

2 of 10 over

upcoming

WRDohnte Meyers Rec yds 19.5 · PIT @ CIN · CIN

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

4 of 8 over

upcoming

WRDohnte Meyers Rec 2.5 · PIT @ CIN · CIN

Market 45.5%Second Opinion 27.8%

under−17.8Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862

3 of 8 over

upcoming

WRGermie Bernard Rec yds 47.5 · PIT @ CIN · PIT

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

2 of 7 over

upcoming

WRGermie Bernard Rec 4.5 · PIT @ CIN · PIT

Market 51.2%Second Opinion 36.5%

under−14.7Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862

3 of 7 over

upcoming

166 leans published for week 10: 27 graded, 139 upcoming, 0 live, 0 void. On this read, 12 cleared, 15 missed.

Receipts: every lean the model has published this season, graded, none removed →

Parlay builder: what a book charges for several of these lines on one ticket →

Gap after cost: every priced outcome beside our number, sorted by the difference with the cost taken off →

What each side rested on: for every graded lean, the one input of the model nearest to changing its side →

Between two lines: the chance a count lands between two rungs of an exchange ladder, and what that costs to buy →

How the board is read

Market P(over): median of each benchmark book’s de-vigged price at the main line · Second Opinion: baseline-usage-0.4+03571d4710af

Line: the main line AT THIS READ: the listed threshold whose median de-vigged over probability across DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM is closest to 0.5. is_main is a property of the read, not of the market; it is false only on a row kept for a published lean whose line the main line moved off.
Gap: model minus market, probability points, signed
Lean: over at gap >= +T, under at gap <= -T
Longshot: market P(over) outside [0.15, 0.85]; multiplicative de-vig is biased there - to revisit with Shin or power de-vig once settled data exists
Void: market_pulled | inactive | no_snap - a voided lean stays on the ledger

Threshold log (appended, never edited, so every lean is graded against the threshold it was published under): 4 points from 2026-09-01 (decided 2026-09-24 (audit 5.3, unit a-26) before the first board; effective from season start because no board read predates it).

Last read Fri 8:24 PM ET · week 10Break-even at −110 is 52.4%Nothing leaves the board when it misses

Not a sportsbook · no wagers accepted · nothing here is advice · read Fri 8:24 PM ET · 86 reads this week · model baseline-usage-0.4+03571d4710af · board/nfl/2026/wk10

323 lines posted.The model leans on 166.

153 cleared · 108 missed

50 carried · 49 broke

A gap of 4 points or more between the model and the market.

Chance to clear each threshold

This line, game by game

What leans this size have done

Line since open

323 lines posted.
The model leans on 166.