Lines · 2026 · Week 10 · read Fri 8:24 PM ET

323 lines posted.
The model leans on 166.

Every posted line this week, the market's price, the Second Opinion beside it, and what leans that size have done before. Nothing leaves the board when it misses.

Leans published, week 10

166

27 graded · 139 open · 0 void

Leans cleared, this read

44%

12 of 27 · 95% 28%–63%

Break-even at −110

52.4%

what a lean at that price needs

Week 9, settled

Week 10's market is not broad yet, so this page leads with week 9, as the landing does. What the board said before the games, and what happened. Nothing is removed when it missed.

Leans published, week 9

153 cleared · 108 missed

58.6% of 261 graded cleared, 95% 53%–64%. That interval sits wholly over break-even at −110, 52.4%. 10 leans were void and stay on the ledger. Every lean, graded, on Receipts.

Streaks into week 9

50 carried · 49 broke

101 lines went into week 9 on a streak one of the four rules fired on. 50.5% of the 99 graded carried it, 95% 41%–60%. 2 void. Who carried and who broke.

What a lean is

A gap of 4 points or more between the model and the market.

First opinionThe market’s price

Second OpinionThe model’s

It is published so it can be graded, not because disagreeing has paid. Every lean stays on the record, cleared or missed.

From the board index · board/nfl/2026/wk10/index.json

Player props

281 of 323 lines shown; 166 carry a lean, at a gap of 4 points or more. Each row sets the market’s chance of the over beside the Second Opinion’s.

Lean

All Leans No lean

Market

All Rec yds Rec Rush att

Hide settled

Game and order

134 of the 323 lines are receiving yards, where the model gives no price this week: those rows show the market alone. Every row is complete as shown; nothing on this board is still loading.

Rows 81–120 of 281 · page 3 of 8

Sun, Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET7 games · 145 lines · continued; 40 of them on this page

RBQuinshon Judkins Rush att 13.5 · HOU @ CLE · CLE

Market 47.1%Second Opinion 56.9%

over+9.8Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602

5 of 10 over

upcoming

WRTank Dell Rec yds 30.5 · HOU @ CLE · HOU

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

8 of 10 over

upcoming

WRTank Dell Rec 2.5 · HOU @ CLE · HOU

Market 50.8%Second Opinion 22.9%

under−28.0Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862

7 of 10 over

upcoming

WRXavier Hutchinson Rec yds 26.5 · HOU @ CLE · HOU

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

7 of 10 over

upcoming

WRXavier Hutchinson Rec 2.5 · HOU @ CLE · HOU

Market 53.2%Second Opinion 47.2%

under−6.0Leans this size 48% [45%–51%] · n 1,059

8 of 10 over

upcoming

RBBhayshul Tuten Rec yds 11.5 · JAX @ TEN · JAX

Market 49.8%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

7 of 10 over

upcoming

RBBhayshul Tuten Rec 1.5 · JAX @ TEN · JAX

Market 59.8%Second Opinion 28.9%

under−31.0Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862

6 of 10 over

upcoming

RBBhayshul Tuten Rush att 15.5 · JAX @ TEN · JAX

Market 46.8%Second Opinion 13.6%

under−33.2Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602

3 of 10 over

upcoming

TEBrenton Strange Rec yds 35.5 · JAX @ TEN · JAX

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

6 of 10 over

upcoming

TEBrenton Strange Rec 3.5 · JAX @ TEN · JAX

Market 42.5%Second Opinion 50.5%

over+8.0Leans this size 48% [45%–51%] · n 1,059

4 of 10 over

upcoming

WRJakobi Meyers Rec yds 41.5 · JAX @ TEN · JAX

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

4 of 10 over

upcoming

WRJakobi Meyers Rec 3.5 · JAX @ TEN · JAX

Market 49.3%Second Opinion 55.5%

over+6.2Leans this size 48% [45%–51%] · n 1,059

5 of 10 over

upcoming

WRParker Washington Rec yds 62.5 · JAX @ TEN · JAX

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

6 of 10 over

upcoming

Chance to clear each threshold

Last 10 games: the share at or above each threshold. Ten games at most: a small sample, drawn as one.

Market 50.0%No Second Opinion for this market— last ten

The read prices the main line only; the books also listed 60.5, without a price in this file.

This line, game by game

Last 10 against today’s 62.5, not the line posted that week · cleared 6 of 10.

Cleared Missed– not recorded

this season 4 of 8 · career 11 of 46 against 62.5 · 15 of 29 against each game's own closing line (2023-2025 sportsbook closes).

What leans this size have done

The model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone. No gap, and no lean.

Line since open

Opened at 62.5, unchanged.

One read of this line so far (Thu, Nov 12, 1:00 PM ET, 50.0%): no path yet.

Each book at 62.5, as it last showed it. Market P(over) is the median of the de-vigged prices across 2 books.
Book	Over	Under	P(over)	Hold
draftkings	−112	−112	50.0%	5.7%
betmgm	−115	−115	50.0%	7.0%

JAX @ TEN · kickoff Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET

WRParker Washington Rec 4.5 · JAX @ TEN · JAX

Market 44.3%Second Opinion 34.7%

under−9.5Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862

5 of 10 over

upcoming

RBTony Pollard Rush att 15.5 · JAX @ TEN · TEN

Market 46.9%Second Opinion 40.0%

under−6.9Leans this size 53% [47%–58%] · n 331

6 of 10 over

upcoming

QBTrevor Lawrence Rush att 3.5 · JAX @ TEN · JAX

Market 42.3%Second Opinion 46.0%

no lean+3.7no lean history

2 of 10 over

upcoming

RBBijan Robinson Rec yds 29.5 · KC @ ATL · ATL

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

4 of 10 over

upcoming

RBBijan Robinson Rec 3.5 · KC @ ATL · ATL

Market 57.5%Second Opinion 52.2%

under−5.3Leans this size 50% [47%–53%] · n 1,084

4 of 10 over

upcoming

RBBijan Robinson Rush att 20.5 · KC @ ATL · ATL

Market 47.0%Second Opinion 24.6%

under−22.3Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602

2 of 10 over

upcoming

WRDrake London Rec yds 72.5 · KC @ ATL · ATL

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

4 of 10 over

upcoming

WRDrake London Rec 5.5 · KC @ ATL · ATL

Market 53.5%Second Opinion 41.5%

under−11.9Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862

3 of 10 over

upcoming

RBEmmett Johnson Rec yds 11.5 · KC @ ATL · KC

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

5 of 8 over

upcoming

RBEmmett Johnson Rec 1.5 · KC @ ATL · KC

Market 55.9%Second Opinion 31.6%

under−24.2Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862

5 of 8 over

upcoming

WRJahan Dotson Rec yds 28.5 · KC @ ATL · ATL

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

5 of 10 over

upcoming

WRJahan Dotson Rec 1.5 · KC @ ATL · ATL

Market 62.4%Second Opinion 35.7%

under−26.6Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862

7 of 10 over

upcoming

WRJosh Downs Rec yds 23.5 · KC @ ATL · KC

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

7 of 10 over

upcoming

WRJosh Downs Rec 2.5 · KC @ ATL · KC

Market 46.8%Second Opinion 75.7%

over+29.0Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862

8 of 10 over

upcoming

RBKenneth Walker III Rec yds 18.5 · KC @ ATL · KC

Market 49.8%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

4 of 10 over

upcoming

RBKenneth Walker III Rec 2.5 · KC @ ATL · KC

Market 54.6%Second Opinion 40.1%

under−14.5Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862

6 of 10 over

upcoming

RBKenneth Walker III Rush att 18.5 · KC @ ATL · KC

Market 51.8%Second Opinion 24.5%

under−27.3Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602

5 of 10 over

upcoming

TEKyle Pitts Rec yds 37.5 · KC @ ATL · ATL

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

4 of 10 over

upcoming

TEKyle Pitts Rec 3.5 · KC @ ATL · ATL

Market 54.6%Second Opinion 55.6%

no lean+1.0no lean history

4 of 10 over

upcoming

TENoah Gray Rec yds 10.5 · KC @ ATL · KC

Market 50.1%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

7 of 10 over

upcoming

TENoah Gray Rec 1.5 · KC @ ATL · KC

Market 41.5%Second Opinion 44.8%

no lean+3.3no lean history

6 of 10 over

upcoming

WROlamide Zaccheaus Rec yds 7.5 · KC @ ATL · ATL

Market 50.8%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

2 of 10 over

upcoming

WROlamide Zaccheaus Rec 1.5 · KC @ ATL · ATL

Market 41.0%Second Opinion 46.5%

over+5.5Leans this size 50% [47%–53%] · n 1,084

2 of 10 over

upcoming

WRRashee Rice Rec yds 54.5 · KC @ ATL · KC

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

4 of 10 over

upcoming

WRRashee Rice Rec 5.5 · KC @ ATL · KC

Market 42.5%Second Opinion 48.2%

over+5.7Leans this size 50% [47%–53%] · n 1,084

6 of 10 over

upcoming

TETravis Kelce Rec yds 47.5 · KC @ ATL · KC

Market 50.0%Second Opinion none for this market

market not modelledso no gap and no leanThe model gives no price on any receiving yards line this week, so this row is the market alone.

6 of 10 over

upcoming

TETravis Kelce Rec 4.5 · KC @ ATL · KC

Market 42.9%Second Opinion 41.5%

no lean−1.3no lean history

3 of 10 over

upcoming

166 leans published for week 10: 27 graded, 139 upcoming, 0 live, 0 void. On this read, 12 cleared, 15 missed.

Receipts: every lean the model has published this season, graded, none removed →

Parlay builder: what a book charges for several of these lines on one ticket →

Gap after cost: every priced outcome beside our number, sorted by the difference with the cost taken off →

What each side rested on: for every graded lean, the one input of the model nearest to changing its side →

Between two lines: the chance a count lands between two rungs of an exchange ladder, and what that costs to buy →

How the board is read

Market P(over): median of each benchmark book’s de-vigged price at the main line · Second Opinion: baseline-usage-0.4+03571d4710af

Line: the main line AT THIS READ: the listed threshold whose median de-vigged over probability across DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM is closest to 0.5. is_main is a property of the read, not of the market; it is false only on a row kept for a published lean whose line the main line moved off.
Gap: model minus market, probability points, signed
Lean: over at gap >= +T, under at gap <= -T
Longshot: market P(over) outside [0.15, 0.85]; multiplicative de-vig is biased there - to revisit with Shin or power de-vig once settled data exists
Void: market_pulled | inactive | no_snap - a voided lean stays on the ledger

Threshold log (appended, never edited, so every lean is graded against the threshold it was published under): 4 points from 2026-09-01 (decided 2026-09-24 (audit 5.3, unit a-26) before the first board; effective from season start because no board read predates it).

Last read Fri 8:24 PM ET · week 10Break-even at −110 is 52.4%Nothing leaves the board when it misses

Not a sportsbook · no wagers accepted · nothing here is advice · read Fri 8:24 PM ET · 86 reads this week · model baseline-usage-0.4+03571d4710af · board/nfl/2026/wk10

323 lines posted.The model leans on 166.

153 cleared · 108 missed

50 carried · 49 broke

A gap of 4 points or more between the model and the market.

Chance to clear each threshold

This line, game by game

What leans this size have done

Line since open

323 lines posted.
The model leans on 166.